From the Thai-language press: Thairath editorial: Worry that the government is insolvent - November 3, 2005

An ABAC poll surveyed peoples' opinions in 20 provinces and 74.8% said they had less trust in the government than three month ago because of problems of unrest in the three southern border provinces and 66.4% cited economic problems, high gasoline costs, and the high cost of living.

This was a survey of 20 provinces around the country that asked 4,256 people so the answers reflect some peoples’ view. Most people think that the big problem faced the government and all Thai people at present is unrest in the South followed by the high cost of gasoline, the high cost of goods and corruption.

About the southern problem, the draft report that the National Conciliation Commission (NCC) prepares to send to the government is divided into eight parts. Some parts are worrying, especially the part that explains about the violent events including the protesters who vanished at Takbai making Thai-Muslims in the southern border area not trust the government. This is a dangerous signal showing things are moving to the circumstance of insolvability.

A symptom of this is that the government cannot guarantee safety and give public service for people. It seems there are more places that the government cannot access. More dangerous is the trend of weak insolvent communities such as the case of Tanyonlimore village where community cannot protect its people.

In the political science philosophy of "society contract" that PM usually cites, people consent to make a contract with the “state” by sacrificing some rights and freedom to the state. The important duty of the state is protecting safety of life and assets of people. If the government cannot do that, it can termed in the circumstance of "insolvent."

The worrying thing is the draft of NCC report shows that areas where the government cannot access is increasing. The insurgents' statements in the past said they can spread the “liberated area” continuously although the government has many military, police, administrative people and volunteers including the full of power of an urgent decree.

The more worrying thing is that there is no confidence in who is responsible for the unrest in the south--neither by the persons who set policy or the those who implement it. Neither can clearly “understand and access” problems in the three provinces although the PM always declared to “go to the right way” and quickly "close the game,” but it seems that it is still lost.


From the Thai-language press: Thairath editorial: The signal that warns the government - November 2, 2005

Although the Election Commission has not officially declared the results of the by-election in four areas, the results show that TRT won in only one area. The opposition parties, Democrat, Chat Thai and Mahachon won in three areas. Thaksin Shinawatra and the leaders of TRT insisted that the result was not about the party, but about issues of individuals running in each area.

But most of the political observers believe this result reflects the political view and it has important meaning not only because Thai Rak Thai was defeated in Satun, it also defeated and lost it own seats in two provinces, Pichit and Uthaithani. TRT held onto only one seat in Singburi only. At the same time, the opposition party gained two more seats.

These are two significant seats in politics and strategy. The campaign of cooperating opposition parties begged people to vote to reach 125 opposition seats. After getting 2 seats, the opposition parties have votes enough to call a no-confidence debate on corruption issue and be able to dismiss ministers.

The votes that they received reflects the decreasing popularity of TRT in every area. Although Thaksin has come back to be the PM again in the second election, but he had little time for a political honeymoon with the voters as he had many problem and scandals. Among them are the accused corruption in CTX at Suwannabhumi Airport, corruption in many projects in buying-hiring, the unrest in the southern border provinces that spreads and becomes more violent, and the recurrent economic problems such as the high cost of gasoline, goods, and the current account trade deficit.

Those problems test the ability of the government in solving problems. In the past, the government could not solve problem such as unrest in the south and quelling corruption even though they used populist policies such as village funds, solving the poor problem and discharging debts. So there is a question as to whether any of the government's solutions to problems really sustainable.


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