Referendum YES & no

[GWR]

Lack of observers
Published on August 20, 2007
Election observers expressed concern over the lack of observers at many polling stations.

They suggested the possibility of government tampering of referendum ballot boxes.

Observers received a number of complaints from voters whose names had been removed from electoral rolls. This may have been done by the Interior Ministry in an effort to increase the turnout percentage, they said.

Asian Network for Free Elections director Somsri Hananuntasuk said there were no observers at many polling stations and this opened up the possibility for "rigging of the result".

"[The government] could cheat if it wanted to," Somsri said.

She said the network urged the public to demand vigilance during the counting.

"The important thing is that people observe this themselves. Counting is crucial and [this time] we have no party representatives [because it's a referendum on the draft constitution]."

Somsri criticised the Election Commission for failing to encourage the public to monitor ballot counting, saying it had an opportunity to advertise but did not.

"We don't have enough observers and I'm worried about it."

Pravit Rojanaphruk,

The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007...s_30045690.php

[GWR]

Official Final Result expected about 18:30 today:

98 per cent votes counted and voter turnout is 56.5 per cent - Sodsri


Election Commission's member Sodsri Sattayatham said Monday that 98 per cent of votes is counted and about 25 million voters or 56.5 per cent showed up to votes in the Sunday referendum for the draft charter.

As of 8am, 57 per cent of voters voted yes for the draft and 41 per cent voted no, she said.

She singled out each region as follows;

Yes (%) No (%)

Bangkok 65.7 34.2

Central 66.8 32.1

Northeast 36.5 63,4

North 53.7 41,2

South 87.7 12.2

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/brea...ewsid=30045718

[GWR]

EC to endorse charter at 4 pm, submit official referendum results to CDA at 5 pm

The election commissioners will sign their name to endorse the draft constitution and official results of the draft constitution at 4 pm Monday, EC commissioner Sodsri Satayatham said.

She said the official results will be submitted to the chairman of the Constitution Drafting Assembly at 5 pm.

The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/brea...ewsid=30045719

[mdechgan]

Looks like the TRT still has strong support from the Isaan area.
The south was really surprising due to the majority of yes votes.
I guess they really hated the old TRT government.

[GWR]

[Map: Chris Baker@ New Mandala]

Here is a “quick and dirty” map of the referendum result provided by Chris Baker. Thanks Chris!

http://rspas.anu.edu.au/rmap/newmand...ones/#comments

But New Mandala's observations on the results

http://rspas.anu.edu.au/rmap/newmand...for-the-junta/

14 out of 45. An endorsement for the junta?
August 20th, 2007 by Andrew Walker · 3 Comments

In the controversial April 2006 election the Thai Rak Thai party received almost 16 million votes. Many argued that this was an illegitimate election victory, largely because of the boycott by the main opposition parties and the low voter turnout. What was the result in yesterday’s referendum? With results from about 97% of booths, the Election Commission is indicating that the “yes” vote received about 14.3 million votes. This represents about 56% of votes cast. What will be most disappointing for the junta is that the voter turnout was relatively low, at about 55% of those registered to vote, despite its massive publicity campaign. In the three elections of the Thaksin era the turnout was 70%, 72% and 65%.

So, of the 45 million Thais registered to vote, 14 million have endorsed the proposed constitution. It is a victory of sorts (and key no vote campaigners have accepted it), but not an impressive one. The international reaction will be interesting to watch.

Love the comments:

#

Historicus // Aug 20, 2007 at 11:45 am

The results are going to scare the pants of the conservatives, the military leadership and the palace. Get ready for even more propaganda and, I fear, more repression and dirty tricks. The message that the troglodytes will draw from this result is that they need to be blunter in getting what they want. Sonthi B. said as much today.
#

2 Lleij Samuel Schwartz // Aug 20, 2007 at 3:07 pm

All this election has accomplished is statistically proven that Thailand is currently engaged in a “cold” civil war between the North/Northeast and the Central/South.

All that’s left now is to choose the fighting anthems of both sides, every great civil war has had them: the English Civil War had When the King Enjoys His Own Again for one side and Lili Burlero for the other. For the American Civil War, we, of course, have The Battle Hymn of the Republic and Dixie.

So any suggestions for songs representative of the sides in this conflict, my fellow New Mandalaians?
#

3 ThaiBloke // Aug 20, 2007 at 4:29 pm

Not exactly a resounding yes was it. And the old TRT stronghold has made its feeling very clear.

The next government is going to have to get the development bandwagon running hard in the North East to stop trouble up here I think. Looking around my home town, business is down, various shops closing, and yet the local govt is spending money on bratoo meung! Can’t they find something more beneficial to spend the money on in the countryside?

The country has never been so split I fear.

[GWR]

Charter approved with 57.81 per cent of votes: official results

The Election Commission officially announced Monday that the draft constitution was approved by 14.727 million of voters of 57.81 per cent of voters who exercised their rights.

A total of 25,978,954 voters or 57.61 per cent of 45,093,055 eligible voters exercised their right.

A total of 10,747,310 voters rejected the draft. They were 42.19 per cent of those who cast votes.

The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/brea...ewsid=30045745

[GWR]

[Photo: Al Jazeera]

Not really sure that these maps really prove anything. Well, at least not the conclusions Prachatai would like us to reach. I suppose one might say that it is extremely easy to bribe the poorest in society with small short-term bribes, and that it is extremely easy to bribe the rest by tapping into their patriotic indoctrination and with mucho promises of richpickings for those of already high rank. One would note that the Deep South bucked the trend to vote No because of martial law being imposed on it; although this could indicate how badly Thaksin and TRT's Wada Faction mismanaged the sub-region in the past:

http://www.prachatai.com/english/news.php?id=155

Referendum results correlated to areas under martial law
Prachatai
20 August 2007

Map of referendum results:
[Maps: Prachatai created by Poakpong Pongsasanongkul]

Green = Yes

Red = No

Map of areas under martial law:

Red = areas under martial law

[Wisarut]

Unofficial results by manager Daily
http://www.manager.co.th/Politics/Vi...=9500000097469

Opinion 1095
The referendium result implined the subconschiousness of Isan people ... co,mparing with thsoe from 3 troublesome provinces ... Those from 3 troblesome Southern provinces still csare more abotu Thainess than those isan people thwo act more like hoards of cattle .... Look at some Provinces, they cannot dare to wear Yellow Shirt for his Majesty ... but htey have to wear red shirts of thsoe RED GUARD ....

To be fair, Isan people have been traumatized by abject and chronic poverty, never get sincere treatment by central government ... The schism between Isan people and Central Government have caused them to be manipulated and brainwashed by political Scorndrels in both local and National levels.

Another weakness of Isan peole is the chronic Disunity among themselves , - Jealousy among themselves ... Even askign the governemtn to removbe thsoe bad bureauct and police to the TROUBLESOME provinces in the South instead of Sackign them .... a TRUE act of Jealousy toward thre Southerners

SUhc jealousy ONLY causes very weak societies - nearly at bankrupcy even among politicians from Isan. This also due to insincerity of the central government by NOT implement social development and good education system.

The first step for real heal is to ensure that thsoe local and National politicians cannot tellign a BIG LIE to those Isan people. The bureaucrat and Armed forces and even politicians must bew a good role model for those people ...

Look at the farmers form the SOuth, they can manage to send their kids to Study in Malaysia and Singapore ... even without government swcholarship.
Why the farmers from Isan FAILED to do the same thing as theo farmers in the South?

How can we plant the consciousness to sacrifice themselves for sake of the Nation if we keep thsoe Isan people ignorant as they are?

[GWR]

National referendum : Official results

Official results of the vote count of the national referendum on the draft charter.


Eligible voters : 45,929,955


Voter Turnout : 25,978,154 (57.61%)


Yes : 14,727,306 (56.69%)


No : 10,747,441 (41.37%)


Void : 504,120 (1.94 %)


Highest voters' turnout : Lamphun (75.35%)


Lowest voters' turnout : Surin (49.66%)


Highest number of void ballots : Pattani (6.05%), followed by Yala (5.38%) and Narathiwat (4.37%).


Lowest number of void ballots : Bangkok (1.12)


Highest number of Yes votes : Chumphon (93.20%)


Highest number of No votes : Nakhon Panom (22.41%)

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007...s_30045770.php

For those who read Thai, here's the Electoral Commission website with a results breakdown:

http://www.ect.go.th/

With a .pdf breakdown of results at the province level:

http://www.ect.go.th/thai/download50/post155.pdf

[GWR]

THAILAND: A long road back to human rights and the rule of law

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
AS-196-2007
August 20, 2007

A Statement by the Asian Human Rights Commission

THAILAND: A long road back to human rights and the rule of law

Predictably, the military junta in Thailand has coerced, threatened, bought and cajoled part of the electorate into passing its 309-article constitution on August 19. From results to date, just over 14 million people out of the country's 45 million eligible voters crossed the box in favour of the charter. As only 25 million bothered to turn up at the poll booths, despite the saturating propaganda campaign in the weeks beforehand, this number was sufficient to carry the draft.

The number of voters was far lower than in previous recent elections, which have all been at least 62 per cent. In fact, the last time that there was a less than 60 per cent voter turnout was in the March 1992 general election that was hosted by the previous military dictatorship; its leader then took over as prime minister and was ousted by massive street protests a couple of months later, precipitating the period of nascent democracy and moves towards genuine constitutionalism of the 1990s, culminating in the abrogated 1997 Constitution. Unsurprisingly, the low percentage of votes cast has been played down, lest it suggest a heavy scepticism about the referendum and weariness about the persistent presence of the military in Thailand's politics and public affairs.

The conditions under which the constitution was passed bode ill for the days and months ahead. Martial law remained in effect across half the country. Opponents of the draft were intimidated and materials confiscated from houses and post offices. Protestors against the coup have been charged with criminal offences. Villagers were reportedly paid to attend government-backed rallies: precisely the sort of practice that the interim administration accused its predecessors of using to win elections. The army and bureaucracy were mobilised to see that the document, jacketed in yellow as an unmistakable reference to the monarchy, was accepted. The entire event was conducted under a heavy anti-democratic atmosphere: precisely the sort of referendum that dictators have used throughout history to give the false impression of public endorsement for their actions. History also has many lessons about the types of repressive regimes and social turmoil that emerge from such deceitful public rituals.

The people of Thailand are now caught in strange and contradictory circumstances. On the one hand, the social and economic life of their country is undeniably in the 21st century. On the other hand, its political and legal life has now been firmly thrown back to the 1980s. As a result, many good persons will likely withdraw from those areas completely, while others who may have contributed to them will now be reluctant or unwilling to do so. The parliament, courts and legal profession will likely lose good people, as the former returns to an elite bureaucratic mode of government and the latter become more and more politically compromised and corrupted. Fewer persons also will seek to obtain redress for grievances through these institutions, and will instead turn to outside avenues and feudal remedies in order to gain partial satisfaction, rather than get nothing at all.

The coming general election too will do nothing to solve the country's problems. The junta will undoubtedly continue to manipulate and malign others throughout the coming period. The military has re-cemented its position at the centre of key institutions and regardless of whatever else happens it will use its renewed authority to full effect. Political parties will have only a small window for organising and campaigning. Those that sided with the regime can be expected to obtain the greatest advantages in the lead-up to the vote, while meanwhile over a hundred executives from the former ruling party have had their political rights revoked for five years under an order of the coup leader, shamefully endorsed by the proxy constitutional court set up after last September. In view of the current circumstances, the European Union and others would be wrong to send observers as has been proposed, as they would only serve to lend credence to another sham.

The Asian Human Rights Commission deeply regrets the passing of this regressive charter, not only for the people of Thailand but the people of the entire region. In the 1990s Thailand emerged as a place of hope and possibility for persons concerned with human rights and the rule of law in Asia. It set an example that encouraged others in more repressed societies. While the former government did much to damage this positive atmosphere, it took the army to destroy it completely. To rescue their country, the people of Thailand now have another long road ahead of them. For the sake not only of themselves but for the people in every other part of Asia that looked to them for inspiration and guidance, they should find the stomach and determination to carry on.

# # #

Posted on 2007-08-20

http://www.ahrchk.net/statements/mai...atements/1156/

[jpatokal]

Originally Posted by GWR

For those who read Thai, here's the Electoral Commission website with a results breakdown:

Lowest voters' turnout : Surin (49.66%)
Highest number of void ballots : Pattani (6.05%), followed by Yala (5.38%) and Narathiwat (4.37%).

I was wondering why the South had such high positive percentages, but this would seem to explain why: only the Buddhists, who would be expected to prefer martial law, are voting, while Muslims are boycotting it -- hence the low percentages and the high numbers of "void" (defaced? empty?) ballots.

[Wisarut]

I jusdt got Morning News from Channel 3 ... It told me that the Referendium already Splitted the whole famiuly APART ... in such a way that wife who vote NO had used Machete to Slice the Throat of here Husband who vote YES

[GWR]

Originally Posted by jpatokal

I was wondering why the South had such high positive percentages, but this would seem to explain why: only the Buddhists, who would be expected to prefer martial law, are voting, while Muslims are boycotting it -- hence the low percentages and the high numbers of "void" (defaced? empty?) ballots.

One report said that Yawi speakers were sometimes confused about how to fill in the voting slip. Maybe in some cases.

The strong Yes vote in this area genuinely reflects a very high degree of anger with Thaksin for withdrawing state assistance to the region when local electors didn't vote for him in sufficiently high numbers in the general election. He is also widely perceived by many Buddhists and Muslims to have unnecessarily stirred up a problem in the deep south. There was also the perceived insult to General Prem; although I'm not convinced that everyone was all that bothered by this issue. Thaksin's notion that the region was awash with hoodlums - that he could easily control - also did little to endear him. Indeed, some of the dodgiest people in this area are thought to be moonlighting military & police Thaksin supporters - the sort of people who share his 'get rich quick, regardless' philosophy.

Thaksin (and previously his local TRT Wadah faction) are thought by many to have made a complete hash in the region. So there was a strong element of Thaksin and TRT dislike down here.

Some folks have also told me that there is a need to get back to business as usual, so as to prevent the insurgents thriving on disunity between the region and national government.

[Wisarut]

People in the 3 Toublesome Soutehr provinces want PEACE so they vote YES to Junta constitution
http://www.manager.co.th/Local/ViewN...=9500000098525
CHumporn is the No. 1 Percentage of thsoe who cast the vote for the referendium.
http://www.manager.co.th/Local/ViewN...=9500000098507

[BangkokPundit]

Originally Posted by jpatokal

I was wondering why the South had such high positive percentages, but this would seem to explain why: only the Buddhists, who would be expected to prefer martial law, are voting, while Muslims are boycotting it -- hence the low percentages and the high numbers of "void" (defaced? empty?) ballots.

Although, the "yes" vote in the 3 southern border provinces was about 70% on average which was significantly lower than the rest of the South. As I wrote elsewhere:

Ok, spoiled/void/invalid ballots occur for many reasons, but one of the reasons is outlined by Kom Chad Luek who report that many ballots were invalidated by messages written on them. For example, they weren't happy with the work of soldiers in conducting searches and detaining suspects. "why you search my house and detain the innocent people" ("มึงมาค้นบ้านและจับผู้บริสุทธิ์ทำไม") and "I hate you" ("กูเกลียดมึง") are some examples. The source states that there are messages from those "for" the authorities and those "against" the authorities.

I also wonder what rule the Democrat Party support played in this. Interesting it was only those uneducated Northerners and NE people who didn't understand the charter (well, according to the CNS) and were subject to influence whereas the Southerners of course understood things clearly and were not subject to any influence.