Who is the "highly charismatic individual" behind Visanu's resignation?

[Tettyan]

Now we're getting code words from the Bangkok Post... Key sentences are highlighted below. As with anything from this paper (or any Thai media outlet for that matter), it should be taken with a grain of salt, but it still provides food for thought over the weekend.

So who is the individual in question? Surly not someone that is better off going unnamed?

Also, any clue about the reference to the "proxy war"? Part of me has always felt that the recent political conflict about a whole lot more than just Thaksin, but perhaps I shouldn't speculate further for the time being...

Originally Posted by Bangkok Post

PM appears willing to accept fate
TRT's future to be decided on Tuesday

POST REPORTERS - June 24, 2006

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra yesterday expressed readiness to submit to his fate, as the Office of the Attorney-General (OAG) set Tuesday as the date for deciding the future of his Thai Rak Thai party.

Mr Thaksin hinted that he was up against forces greater than he, and that it was best to resign himself to whatever might befall him.

"I have more opportunities than you do, but they come and go. My time as the prime minister must also come to an end," he said, presiding over an event to mark the fourth anniversary of the assets conversion office.

Mr Thaksin said his departure from office, however, may occur under the constitution or under pressure from an individual or a group of individuals.

A source close to Mr Thaksin said he was feeling disheartened by the political ambiguity surrounding the government and his party.

The Election Commission recently forwarded a report on alleged electoral fraud by TRT to the prosecution. It endorsed the findings that the ruling party violated article 66 of the Political Party Act, which says a party could be dissolved for any action deemed to be subversion of the democratic system and constitutional monarchy, or for acquisition of executive power by unconstitutional means, or for committing any act deemed a threat to national security, public order, or ethics and morality.

If the OAG decides to indict TRT and the Constitution Court rules against the party, TRT will be disbanded.

The source said Mr Thaksin had assessed the situation and concluded he was fighting a losing battle.

Cabinet members close to Mr Thaksin said he was becoming tired of fighting a proxy war. He believed he was pitted against a highly charismatic individual who was behind campaigns to oust him from office.

The individual in question was believed to be behind the resignation of his top legal experts, Borwornsak Uwanno and Visanu Krue-ngarm.

Mr Visanu revealed his plan to resign to the media on Thursday, only a few weeks after Mr Borwornsak stepped down as cabinet secretary-general.

Mr Thaksin shrugged off Mr Visanu's resignation, saying there were several others to fill the vacant seats.

Eyebrows were raised yesterday when Mr Thaksin announced that Mr Visanu's resignation would take effect today. Mr Visanu earlier said he needed more time to clear his work.

The source said Mr Thaksin was putting on an act when he stepped onto a stage and sold populist policies. Instead he was ready to step aside as prime minister and take advice from "non-partisan" individuals who would mediate to resolve the political crisis, said the source.

Mr Thaksin has been forced to step aside once, after the April 2 snap election, only to return shortly after the Constitution Court ruled the poll invalid. Party members were also left in the dark because he had failed to manage conflicts among factions, said the source.

Rumours were spreading that some key party members, including Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, Education Minister Chaturon Chaisaeng, and Finance Minister Thanong Bidaya, were considering leaving.

Mr Chaturon and Mr Thanong denied the rumours, while Mr Somkid neither denied nor confirmed the speculation.

He slipped past reporters at Don Muang airport when he arrived from France. In the evening, Mr Somkid showed up at the conference of the Federation of Thai Industries at the Regent Cha-Am Hotel in Phetchaburi and played down the rumours.

"I would like to encourage you guys [businessmen] to have more optimism by paying interest to a lot of business challenges coming in the future, rather than paying interest to whether I will resign or not," said Mr Somkid.

Meanwhile, the OAG-appointed panel concluded yesterday it can decide whether to indict TRT even though the EC did not press a charge against the party leader. OAG spokesman Atthapol Yaisawang said the prosecution cannot summon witnesses to testify and must make a decision based on the evidence submitted by the EC.

The panel will establish whether the two party executives implicated in the alleged bankrolling of small parties had acted with the party's consent.

If the panel finds that their act was not for the benefit of the party, it will send the probe findings back to the EC, which might call for a joint probe with the OAG.

[Scuba22]

I am hard-pressed to name more than perhaps one person who is both "highly charismatic" and could also be in a position to fight a proxy war as well as nudge top government officials to resign. Are there any others at all?

The Economist made a keen observation, though I'm not sure they realized how keen it was. In their coverage of the recent celebrations, they mentioned how the street protests, both pro- and anti-Thaksin were "just a piffle" compared to the sea of yellow. Indeed.

Many Thais are wearing yellow every Monday - today I counted 9/14 seats in my morning skytrain section in yellow (I'll keep count weekly!). This is not an organized campaign in the traditional sense, it is quite the viral meme. I'm betting it's going to continue.

It wouldn't surprise me if Thaksin's latest bouts of public whining are related to his realization that no matter what he does, he's still in a shadow. If he can hold on to his cash, it probably makes a lot of sense for him to quietly stand down until later. So here's some thoughts:

1. Backroom deal to let Thaksin keep his cash
2. Disband TRT, but blame others to let Thaksin save face and bow out
3. Thaksin lays low for some time while everyone else bickers
4. Thaksin comes back to save the day

What do you think?

Scuba22

[Naphat]

Another hint dropped in the editorial page:

Thaksin's foundation continues to crumble
VEERA PRATEEPCHAIKUL

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is losing yet another valuable human asset.


Visanu Krue-ngarm, a deputy prime minister, finally broke the silence to the press about his intention to quit the government last Thursday, thus putting an end to speculation about his political future with the Thai Rak Thai party which had been circulating for awhile.

Mr Visanu did not give a definite date of his departure, saying he had some unfinished work to attend to before he would actually resign. But he said he had already informed Mr Thaksin of his intention sometime ago and his boss did not raise any objection.

As a top government legal expert who has, on various occasions, smooth-talked the government out of difficulties over controversial bills and legal matters with his legal expertise, Mr Visanu's resignation represents a double blow to the government and Mr Thaksin in particular at a time when the prime minister's credibility is at rock bottom.

Two weeks earlier, another top legal expert, Borwornsak Uwanno, resigned as the secretary-general of the cabinet after serving in the post for about two years.

Whether Mr Thaksin feels abandoned by the loss of such a valuable asset might never be known from his own mouth, but, at least, he can be assured that Mr Visanu, who in his important position would know lots of sensitive inside information about the government that outsiders would love to hear, will not spill the beans once he is out of the government.

A gentleman who has faithfully served 10 governments and several prime ministers for the past 15 years, Mr Visanu told the press the other day that he had never criticised any governments for which he had served.

''If I go, I will not say what happened. Some people might do so, but I am different,'' he was quoted as saying.

Although Mr Visanu did not give an actual reason for his intention to resign, he at least offered hints about what was described as his apparent uneasiness with the way the government had rushed to turn the Suvarnabhumi airport and the surrounding areas into the country's 77th province without proper public hearings.

''When we fail to meet the three components of good governance—transparency, participation and legality—suspicions and doubts are inevitable,''he reportedly said.

But critics doubt disillusionment is the real and only reason prompting his decision to jump ship. They found it hard to believe that a man like Mr Visanu,who had faithfully served the Thaksin government for five years and who was involved in crafting several of the controversial laws himself, would suddenly become enlightened and decide he wanted to disassociate himself with the government.

Well-informed sources said Mr Visanu had been told by a very influential and respectable figure to quit the government.

This has made it very difficult for him tostay on.

With the departure of Mr Borwornsak, followed by Mr Visanu, the government will now rely on two party loyalists and legal experts, Pongthep Thepkanchana and Pokin Polakul, to deal with legal matters. These include contacts with the Royal Palace for bills or government announcements which require His Majesty's endorsement.

If anything, the departure of Mr Borwornsak and Mr Visanu signal something is changing among those who have faithfully served Mr Thaksin without ever uttering a dissenting voice against him in public.

Rather than defying their boss, which was likely to provoke his wrath, they chose to take a short cut by quitting.

It is only a matter of time before other self-respecting party members become enlightened, and feel ashamed of chanting ''Yes Sir!'' or nodding their heads in agreement everytime Mr Thaksin says anything—right or wrong, wise or foolish, it does not matter—and start to quit, leaving the dear leader surrounded by yes men and women.

Veera Prateepchaikul is Deputy Editor-in- Chief, Post Publishing Co Ltd.

[admin]

>I am hard-pressed to name more than perhaps one person who is both "highly charismatic" and could also be in a position to fight a proxy war as well as nudge top government officials to resign. Are there any others at all?

Are we talking about Prem here?

[Scuba22]

Well, I was thinking more about what Prem represents in his current position, but I suppose that's a very controversial topic. Does Prem speak for himself? Does he speak for a group of people? An institution? An individual? Hard to say.

Also, how is Prem seen by the Thai public? Would he be described as "charismatic"? I bet that he will be emerging as a very important person in the upcoming political ballet (or circus, or worse).

Cheers,

Scuba

[Naphat]

Breaking news from Krungthep Turakij - Thaksin is quoted as saying to senior civil servants:

"There are people who want to be prime minister using section 7 [of the constitution], so they cause trouble. When [Deputy PM] Wissanu and [former cabinet secretary] Bawornsak asked to resign, they talked about the efforts to persuade them to do so. There are people who try to create an interim government, then hold elections. All these actions are not democractic."

Scuba22: Prem does have a lot of influence and commands a lot of respect from Thais in general. He's president of the privy council and in the Thai press, his "title" is Senior Statesman. Read McCargo's article for background and with a grain of salt.

[Wisarut]

Now, Thaksin is blaming the "Charisimatic Man" who is outside consitution jurisdiction as the one who pressure him.


Web Phan Fah dot com has poionted out the Media who go AGAIBST Thaksin -> Sondhi

However, Many people think PM is goign to Blame Papa Prem, Supreme Court, or even "Lord of Heaven" (HM) as the one behind this mess ....

REF:
http://www.thaiinsider.com/ex/ShowNe...6-29/18-38.htm
http://www.manager.co.th/Politics/Vi...=9490000084361

[Tettyan]

Originally Posted by Naphat

Scuba22: Prem does have a lot of influence and commands a lot of respect from Thais in general. He's president of the privy council and in the Thai press, his "title" is Senior Statesman. Read McCargo's article for background and with a grain of salt.

Ah yes, that article. Scuba, I e-mailed that to you the other day, so there should be no need for you to download it. It gives a little preview of what we can expect from the Handley book - seems like McCargo talked to Handley quite a bit before writing that piece. Take it with a grain of salt, yes - but it certainly helps explain a lot about what's been going the last few months. I think it also answers your question about why Prem made his recent comments about bilingualism in the deep south.

[Tettyan]

คนมีบารมี - so that's what's being translated as "highly charismatic individual"? Well, how many authority figures in this country could fit that description?

[Wisarut]

Now, the media seems to get the idea of that "highly charismatic individual". This must be papa Prem [Gen. prem Tinnasoolanone] who asked Visanu and Bowornsak (both come from Songkla as Papa Prem)

However, the derogatory reference toward Papa Prem by the Great Leader has one aim -> Destroy any Top Brasses who are goign to be the Great Shield Protyectign His Majesty and TRoyal Family.

Furthermore, there is a rumour that the policy of 17% Baht Depreciation in November 1984 by Papa Prem had RUINED the business of Thaksin and Pojamarn alogn with business of several brasses who they benefit from Strong Baht, so they are going to REVENGE against Papa Prem for this matter.

REF: http://www.manager.co.th/Daily/ViewN...=9490000084877

http://www.manager.co.th/Politics/Vi...=9490000084614

[Wisarut]

Suriyasai said the plan for Defaming papa Prem is the first stem to Coup and Political Purge .... whcih ultimately -> The Royal Throne
http://www.manager.co.th/Politics/Vi...=9490000084840

Now, those from TRT has posted the followign message wichi totalll UNACCEPTABLE for Thai peopel:

Thailand will opt for a presidential system
Author: Siriphon Prousakh
Date: 30 Jun 2549 13:32

Thailand will have to implement French presidential system

The King could have responded to persistent requests to appoint a new prime minister by appointing an interim prime minister. He chose not to. Instead, he deferred to the courts.

This costly political impasse, which might not be resolved until next year, could have been avoided by a strong presidential system like that of France.

It appears that the King, who is 78 years old, acted as he did to warn his fellow countrymen to prepare for the day when they will be without him.

The king seems to realize that eventually Thailand will have to replace the monarch by a president as head of state and that the president will have to have considerable power, like the president of France.

Siriphon Prousakh
Bangkok

[Stephen Cleary]

Well, I guess i'm quite new at these forums, even though i've been viewing 2bangkok for a long time.

According to what i know - you are never going to know who this charasmatic gentlemen is, and it is not Gen Prem or His Majesty. I am not a big fan of Thaksin but this time round, i feel it unfair that his opponents are constantly asking him to name 'the person'. Of course, they know who he is, and they are taking the pish.

It looks like Thaksin has severly stepped on the wrong feet this time round.

It is all about.....business, but it is not Gen Prem.....

[Scuba22]

Thanks to everyone here for the insights and references regarding Prem. Even if every speculation needs to be taken with a graiin of salt, it's far more interesting to know the speculation than to be completely in the dark. Prem continues to be a mysterious figure to me, but the comments here and sources cited sure make for interesting reading.

Stevepuphan - I'm very curious to understand why you're so sure the individual isn't Prem. As far as Thakin's critics being unfair, isn't it Thaksin himself who publicly complained about this "charismatic person" plotting against him? He should realize that any public comment by a sitting Prime Minister, even a caretaker, is fair game - especially when that comment is an accusation of conspiracy against the Constitution. It doesn't seem at all unfair to me that people are hounding him to get specific on such an incindiary charge.

I am surprised that the papers have openly begun speculating about Prem. Even on this forum, we've been somewhat cautious about this question, yet it's being discussed publicly. Has anyone else noticed a sharp uptick in rumors and comments about topics that people generally didn't discuss before? Sure there were always rumors and stories about various people and relationships, but I am noticing it more and more - am I just paying more attention, or is the general speculative noise increasing?

It all makes me think that Tettyan is right about everything happening right now really being aboug jockeying for position for the impending power vacuum in Thailand. Despite his current problems, Thaksin is still best positioned for Thailand's "second post WWII age" - he's got the cash, the organization and the ambition. Sondhi and others are stepping into the game, but Thaksin has a big head start I think.

McCargo makes an interesting point (and the Handley book will probably get into this further) that the continued political chaos and immaturity in Thailand - unstable governments, no institution building, repeated coups, no coherent parties - was not accidental, that the polity was deliberately kept a mess in order to maintain the previous power structure covertly. Intentional or not, the covert form of the older power structure has survived, though it has been steadily declining. I can't see that surviving the transition to the second age - there is one possible uniting figure, but the public indiciations at least are that she doesn't want the job.

To be perfectly honest, the more I hear about all this and the more I think about it, the more sense it makes to me to get the hell out of here pretty damn soon. I think it's really going to be ugly.

Scuba22

[Tettyan]

Originally Posted by stevesuphan

Well, I guess i'm quite new at these forums, even though i've been viewing 2bangkok for a long time.

According to what i know - you are never going to know who this charasmatic gentlemen is, and it is not Gen Prem or His Majesty. I am not a big fan of Thaksin but this time round, i feel it unfair that his opponents are constantly asking him to name 'the person'. Of course, they know who he is, and they are taking the pish.

It looks like Thaksin has severly stepped on the wrong feet this time round.

It is all about.....business, but it is not Gen Prem.....

First, welcome!

Anyways, we can start with eliminating those who are definitely not the "charismatic figure". As someone on another forum mentioned, Thaksin would never dignify the likes of Sondhi or Chamlong by referring to them in such a way. So it's not likely to be his most vocal opponents.

Well, you mentioned "business". I recall a few weeks ago a local think tank put out a research note claiming that certain powerful interests in the business sector were pushing for Thaksin's removal. Usually, these guys just regurgitate what's said in the local papers, so this seemed a bit unusual. Of course, they could just be shooting from the hip again as they usually do.

So who else could be the one? If you want to talk about someone who has influence in the business community, as well as bureaucratic circles, and who's also no big fan of Thaksin, there's Anand. Here's where translation could be an issue - my gf argues that while Anand is definitely "charismatic" in the English sense of the term, he isn't necessarily someone considered to be คนมีบารมี.

Well, from today's BKK post:

In his Thursday comments, Mr Thaksin said certain individuals and entities which he branded as ''extra-constitutional'' were interfering with agencies set up under the constitution.

So who has the power to interfere "with agencies set up under the constitution"? Other than Thaksin himself of course? It doesn't seem like there are very many. McCargo's article posted by Naphat earlier in this thread (I strongly suggest you read this if you havn't yet) describes how certain figures without formal political roles exert substantial influence over political and bureaucratic appointments. But I should probably stop here.

BTW, has admin or any of the mods read the McCargo paper yet? I would love to be able to discuss it with others on the open forum, but I'm not sure if the material is kosher. Anyways, if any of you have time to read it, and you're comfortable with letting us discuss it here, please do let us know. Thanks.

Originally Posted by Scuba22

McCargo makes an interesting point (and the Handley book will probably get into this further) that the continued political chaos and immaturity in Thailand - unstable governments, no institution building, repeated coups, no coherent parties - was not accidental, that the polity was deliberately kept a mess in order to maintain the previous power structure covertly. Intentional or not, the covert form of the older power structure has survived, though it has been steadily declining. I can't see that surviving the transition to the second age - there is one possible uniting figure, but the public indiciations at least are that she doesn't want the job.

To be perfectly honest, the more I hear about all this and the more I think about it, the more sense it makes to me to get the hell out of here pretty damn soon. I think it's really going to be ugly.

I agree. Thailand's democracy is far, far more immature than it even appears at first sight. The "network" McCargo refers to, which may appear to most observors as a "stabilizing" influence, may actually be delaying Thailand's day of reckoning. Though the comparison is often made, Thaksin certainly no Hugo Chavez. But if something isn't done about these problems, Thailand could very well end up with the real thing one day.

[GWR]

At least two mods have read it. I suspect you know where to draw the line somewhat better than I do.