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#16
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Shin letter to SET, continued
...continued from previous post
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#17
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Kularb Kaew
So now we have a little bit of an idea about who's behind Kularb Kaew. But their chairman says that the initial shareholders will sell off their shares soon to repay the loans needed to buy their stake in Shin. So the $64 question is - to whom do they plan to sell? Maybe I'm reading too much into this - and that this is just one step in a straightforward plan to bring more Thai investors on board, in order to comply with foreign-ownership restrictions. Or could it open the door for the Shinawatras or other politically-connected groups to buy back into the company in future? I saw some i-banker say that if that's what they planned to do, such a set-up would allow them to do so without so much public scrutiny. Since I'm not an expert on the subject, I'm not really sure what to believe.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006..._19730654.html Quote:
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#18
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holding patterns
Any investment banker worth half a damn knows full well how t get around shareholding restrictions. I can't comment on the Shin structure specifically since I don't know the details, but I can lay out the basics - it's not very complicated actually.
The key is understanding the difference between shareholding (who legally owns how many shares and therefore % of the company), management & governance (who makes decisions), and financial disbursements (where the money goes). These are not the same things, and do not necessarily need to be consistent with each other. Shareholding is the only item which is covered by the restrictions (I believe); but in many ways, it's the governance and financial disbursements which are the important parts of the business. Suppose you own 80% of a company and I own 20%. We can still agree that I, the minority, will have a management contract to run the business as I see fit. We can further agree that my management compensation will be tied to the profits of the company. That way, the financial distribution can be totally different than the shareholding. This is where financial structures like intermediary companies and shareholder loans come into play - essentially they're clever ways of adhering to the letter of the law while violating the spirit of it. And if anyone is excellent at doing that, it's our pal Thaksin. All that being said, I should state that I personally believe that shareholding limits for foreigners are stupid on many counts - let me know if I need to get into this, though I suspect most people in this board feel the same way. Cheers, Scuba22 |
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#19
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Can anyone explain the reasoning behind why no tax is being sought by the Revenue Department?
Are share transactions usually tax free? The Enforcer! |
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#20
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Diagram
A neat little diagram outlining the structure of the deal is on the Manger's website. Maybe we can start from this and start trying to fill in the blanks.
http://www.manager.co.th/IHT/ViewNew...=9490000010092 |
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#21
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Sponsors |
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#22
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Big deal?
From the IHT article linked by Tettyan:
The pricing decision, said deal advisor ML Chayotid Kridakon, was based on the value of the asset. “A takeover of this magnitude is very rare and there are few [examples] we could base this on,” he said. (end quote) Is this a joke? People are pretty high on themselves around here - this may be a big deal by local standards, but it's peanuts compared to global M&A. Here's a short list just from the telecoms sector in 2005: NTL-Telewest (UK): US$ 6 billion MCI-Verizon (US): US$ 8.5 billion SBC -AT&T (US): US$ 16 billion If you go back to 1999, there's tons of telecoms mergers above US$ 30 billion: AT&T-TCI, MCI-WorldCom, Vodaphone-Airtouch, Telecom Italia-Olivetti, Bell Atlantic-GTE. Granted these were during a big telecoms bubble, but still, the idea that a US$1.8 billion deal is interesting as a business transaction is silly. The interesting portions of this deal relate to politics and popular perception; the business aspects are fairly banal. Cheers, Scuba22 |
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#23
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Capital gains taxes are a routine political issue in the US. The "rational" argument is that high capital gains taxes make it more difficult for assets to find their "best" owners but placing an artificial incentive against selling things.
The case for high capital gains taxes are more emotional, IMO; since it's usually rich people who own assets to begin with, they're the ones who tend to make capital gains and thus be liable for any capital gains taxes. Cutting capital gains tax thus lowers taxes for primarily rich people - usually not a popular idea. When the numbers are this high for a single person/family, it does look bad to people, regardless of the rationality or legality of the actual action. Cheers, Scuba22 |
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#24
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#25
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Sure, it's a bit deal for Thailand and Singapore - it's about 2% of the GDP of each country, the US equivalent would be a US$235 billion deal - that's massive, absolutely.
My comment was about someone saying that the valuation of such a deal was very difficult because a deal that size is so rare. That's nonsense. Investment banks make valuations on multibillion dollar deals regularly. Temasek was advised by Goldman Sachs, for whom this is a pretty standard deal. The Shinawatras apparently decided to advise themselves instead of getting a major international investment bank to help. Locally & politically, it's a big deal; but we shouldn't kid ourselves, it only looks like giant fish because it's in a tiny pond. Don't forget, just a few years ago, SingTel payed about US$10 billion for Optus. The market didn't react kindly - SingTel's shares plummeted afterwards. Pity that Temasek isn't listed or we could get some market reaction to that as well. Cheers, Scuba22 |
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#26
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Tax free: legal or illegal?
Aside from the whole "Ample Rich" affair, I had though that the Shin sale at least followed the letter of the law. We could all say what we want about the Shinawatra family's ethics, but it seemed that the law entitled them to the tax exemption on the share sale.
Now, the President of the Law Society of Thailand is arguing otherwise - that the authorities who granted the tax exemption operated outsie the law. Does this count for something, or is he just pulling our leg? Since I'm no investment banker or securities lawyer, I was hoping that those who read this forum who are more familiar with such technicalities could try to shed a little more light. http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006..._19854995.html Quote:
Last edited by Tettyan; 07-02-06 at 06:17 PM.. |
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#27
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This won't do anything positive for business confidence: -
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#28
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If anyone thought that doing business with Thaksin was free of political risk, they were fools. Any risk has downside, and this is the downside. All that's changed is perception - the risk was always there.
"Business sentiment" can be pretty stupid, and often is. It's scary that so much is dependent on it. |
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#29
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http://www.theage.com.au/news/busine...036414899.html It'll be interesting to watch how this blows over if (when?) the deal is formally cancelled. |
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#30
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Temasek was being advised by Goldman Sachs, and given Goldman's reputation, they must have thought they were getting decent advice. Yet it's easy to see that the best minds of the best multinationals aren't usually in Southeast Asia, and the Thai contingent is usually several steps below the Singaporean contingent. It makes sense - you don't climb the corporate ladder through Thailand. If you want to make a splash in Asia, you go to Japan, China or India - and perhaps Taiwan or Korea, but Thailand? Naah.
You see people running around with fancy business cards in Thailand, yet the quality of the peoples' skills is such that they'd have a tough time in a bigger market with greater competition. So it is with Goldman's Thai staff. First, they barely have any Thai staff - just a "representative office" in Bangkok staffed by "relationship managers" whose main purpose is to stay friendly with all major powers and decision-makers. In ordinary times, this is a fine situation. When the brains in Hong Kong come up with some idea, the local flunky can put then in front of key people; and when key people here need brains, the flunky can call Hong Kong. It works out fine - Goldman took stakes in the Dusit Thani Hotel and the Regent (now the Four Seasons) after the crash and did very well; as did its Bangkok Capital Alliance JV with GE Capital. But you can't count on "relationship" guys to make any decent analysis - all they know is what they hear from their contacts, and if they're spending all their time with TRT cronies, they're not exactly getting decent information. Temasek clearly got crap advice from Goldman's Thai team, and now it's going to cost them. But what does Goldman care? They've gotten their cut and now its time for the cigars. If they had any self-respect they'd hang their Thai team up to dry, but don't count on it. Scuba22 PS = thanks for the article, very interesting! |
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