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View Full Version : Eye of Hurricane--Thai political system explained


doseiai
01-07-07, 06:31 AM
Most people, even the Thai themselves don't really know whats going on...:confused:

Thailand's political system draws striking similarities to another historical system, that of Azuchi-Momoyama periods of Japan, when 3 powerful figures ruled the country in the name of the emperor.

Both periods, the King (or Emperor) commanded complete respect and devotion from the people. And in both periods, the King (or Emperor) didn't control the country.

The truth is, the king and his family is held captive (remember the coup that established the constitutional monarchy?) by powerful forces. They had already killed the King's older brother Ananda for being too bold, as a warning.:eek: The Princess Mother, in shock, made the King promise to always take care of the Royal family, and not do anything too bold. In other words, the King is the eye of the hurricane. In a hurricane, an eye is eerily peaceful and quiet, while hundred mile an hour winds thrash out just outside.

The King of Thailand and his family is held captive by a group of powerful mafia forces who had long ago commandeered the military. The current leader is of course, none of than Privy Council president Gen. Prem Tinsulanonda. The two others key members are Surayud and Sonthi. In Japan, they were Oda Nobunaga, Toyotomi Hideyoshi, and Tokugawa Ieyasu, from oldest to youngest. Of course, despite having their hands tied, the Imperial (Royal) family still has considerable leverage.

In Thailand, Thaksin became Prime Minister in 2001, and a month later (March 2001) learned his head was wanted, with a failed attempt at his life by blowing up an airliner he was to board. Knowing fully well it was Prem, :mad: and that the major mafia business base of Prem lies in the drug trade, he fought to destroy the base that feeds the mafia. Prem saw this as a bid for Thaksin to build his own mafia to challenge that of Prem's, so as to control the King's family himself. (Similar to Hideyoshi, who challenged Nobunaga). The aged and wise King (similar to Emperor Go-Shirakawa manipulating behind the scenes to rid themselves of the shoguns, liking neither, but playing along) knew whoever won this battle either way was still a loss,:( so he went along with the ouster of Thaksin, despite desperately wanting to rid himself of the grips of the mafia, meanwhile having a secret weapon.:) The King meanwhile put his faith in a relatively unknown outsider, Muslim General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin to command the only power strong enough to save the Royal family from the grips of mafiosos and wannabees (Thaksin) once and for all...the military.

Meanwhile, like Japan's imperial restoration coup, which started in rebellious Christianized Satsuma Province, the southernmost, Thailand's is likely to start in Pattani, also rebellious, southernmost, and Islamic. An alliance between Islamic and Royalist is most improbable, and therefore, the only one that has a chance to slip by Prem's nose. Evidence of their alliance already exists; the King and Sonthi went leanient on Islamists, and stopped Buddhism as the state religion.

Pattani is the "training ground" for pro-Royalist insurgents that will join the Sonthi-Royal alliance in a bid to create an Islamic Royal State of Thailand and ultimately rid Thailand of the mafia. It's not that the King likes Muslims, but they are his last resort and hope, and the lessor of all evils. This is why, despite Islamists bombing Bangkok in January, Sonthi refuses to even consider them as culprits, and the King grants them amnesty. Surayud, like any wise man, is keeping good relations with both Prem and the Royalists, but the day when he is forced to choose sides will come.

doseiai
01-07-07, 07:03 AM
With Prem's mafia weakened by Thaksin's attack on his drug trade, and Thakin dethroned by Prem's advances against the TRT, the Royalist-Islamists will be the only force left. Sonthi needs the King's support to win equal rights for Muslims, a marginalized people in Thailand, and the King needs the support of the military, the excuse of Pattani, and fearless trained combatants. When Prem's enemy, the TRT, are fully taken out, then Sonthi by Royal decree can move in on Prem.

Already, Prem's supporters are sent to be ambushed in Pattani, to thin their ranks in the military, and the Royalist-Islamic side can quietly gain power, blaming it on the insurgency. Hopefully, this will finally end decades of regular coups and Thailand will be able to move on.

With Islamic support, mafia business like prostitution, drug trafficking can be further dismantled, and the country can develop industries properly. It's not that other countries don't have these problems, but they aren't KNOWN FOR THEM. Foreign people immediately associate Thailand/Bangkok with prostitution. Nobody wants their country to be poverty stricken and the brunt of other people's sexual frustrations, and it isn't fair. Every human has a right to respectable work.

Most likely, a system modeled after Malaysia will be put in place, where the King remains powerful and influential, and a coalition government to balance power sharing among groups, and to keep the mafia and extremism at bay.

GWR
01-07-07, 08:04 AM
Controversial stuff perhaps.

Is this a personal belief or are you reporting the belief of others?

We don't operate in a complete vacuum here, so the contents of this thread will be subject to review.

Moderator

Bernie
01-07-07, 08:33 AM
Does Doseiai expect to be taken seriously? Or perhaps this is written just for the sake of provocation.

Bernie

doseiai
01-07-07, 09:25 AM
Moderator: I realize this is controversial stuff, but it needs to be said, I do accept and realize specific items are open for review/removal. As for my article, it accuses some political figures (Prem), but its completely pro-Royalist. This should not break any law in Thailand.

Bernie: Of course, I'm serious. Would it be less controversial if it was a Royalist-Christian alliance? I am not implying that Pattani will rule Thailand with sharia law, I am implying that they will get their rights to autonomous rule in their little area, and other Muslims will be feel less marginalized in Thailand, and have some say in Parliament. As this is unbelieveable to you, it is a good plan because others (Prem) won't suspect either.

Also, note that Thaksin was no threat to the King, who has the most legitimacy of anyone. It would be the ones who don't have legitimacy who would be really nervous, and therefore really anti-Thaksin. In fact, the King himself has rarely spoken out against Thaksin. It is quite obvious that only the former military generals don't have that legitimacy to be so cozy and even represent the King, the highest one being Prem. Don't trust me, see wikipedia, all these quotes are from it...feel free 2 verify.

1. "Parliament is full of Prem's boys"
2. "if you criticize General Prem, you are paid by Thaksin. Its very dangerous."
3. On 9 March 2006, a bomb exploded outside Prem's residence in Bangkok (when Thaksin's was PM)

from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prem_Tinsulanonda

"Privy Councillors can, under royal command, represent the King at official functions."

Prem is president of the Privy Councilhttp://www.angkor.com/2bangkok/2bangkok/forum/showthread.php?t=2533

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Privy_Council_(Thailand)

In Asia, Kings are determined by royal lineage. Hideyoshi of Japan never became shogun because he didn't have an ounce of noble blood, so he became Kampaku, the next best thing, and managed to control the Emperor. He even exiled the Emperor to the mountains to die because the Emperor would not sign giving royal support.
Prem is the same, he cannot become King, but anyone who commands most of the people in power and the military is the de facto ruler of any nation. Prem sure acts like Bush, "either your with us or against us". He acts in the "name of the King" as Shoguns once did, but in fact controls everything. Anyone who has legitimacy in the eyes of the people doesn't need a coup to retain power. Thailand has a lot of coups.

jpatokal
01-07-07, 05:46 PM
Most likely, a system modeled after Malaysia will be put in place, where the King remains powerful and influential, and a coalition government to balance power sharing among groups, and to keep the mafia and extremism at bay.
This sounds entirely unlike Malaysia, where the Yang di-Pertuan Agong (="King") has absolutely zero power and where power is firmly concentrated in the hands of a Malay clique under UMNO.

jpatokal
01-07-07, 05:52 PM
In Asia, Kings are determined by royal lineage. Hideyoshi of Japan never became shogun because he didn't have an ounce of noble blood, so he became Kampaku, the next best thing, and managed to control the Emperor. He even exiled the Emperor to the mountains to die because the Emperor would not sign giving royal support.
AFAIK Emperors Go-Nara, Ogimachi and Go-Yozei all died at Kyoto, with the Imperial family in better shape than before thanks to Hideyoshi's support.

Wisarut
01-07-07, 10:13 PM
Honestly, I foudn that the post bydoseiai is NOTHING short of Smears and Mudslidings ..

If thsoe general are the same aas you claim, why His majesty has apporinted General Luang Aduldejjarat (Friend of Ajarn Pridi and Field Marshall plaek - The general who have eyes of Butchers, but have a though of Judge Pao) as "member of Privy council", but thsoe Gen. Phin and cronies ...

Gen. Phin and 8 November Group keeps using Smear Campaign AGAINST General Luang Aduldejjarat ...

Furthermore, Field Marshall Plaek try to avoide responsibilities on Political purge of 1938 - 1939 whcih involved with the arrest of Prince Rangsit by tellign the correspondents that He just follow the list of suspect from General Luang Aduldejjarat....

nganadeeleg
02-07-07, 06:15 AM
It has the makings of a good fiction novel - you will probably need to look for a publisher outside of Thailand:)

Sunthorn
02-07-07, 10:34 AM
Life in Thailand is a bit like life on the internet. My email account contains mainly scam letters.

There are probably some elements of truth in this conspiracy theory, but it would be more fool me for believing them. One way we can begin to start dealing with the competing factions that have hijacked this country is to ignore their constant attempts to goad us into action by invoking patriotism.

I think Doseiai has some kind of political agenda here. He will have to work much harder to persuade this unpatriotic skeptik. I've heard too many excuses from the rich & powerful here.

doseiai
08-07-07, 03:07 PM
If the King is not to take back power, then how do we deal with these political factions that do nothing but take turns screwing the nation? Rearranging and reshuffling rotten apples does no good, you still have the same bad apples. With the exception of Governor Apirak of Bangkok, I don't see any political figure doing anything for ordinary people.