Who is the "highly charismatic individual" behind Visanu's resignation?

[Tettyan]

Now we're getting code words from the Bangkok Post... Key sentences are highlighted below. As with anything from this paper (or any Thai media outlet for that matter), it should be taken with a grain of salt, but it still provides food for thought over the weekend.

So who is the individual in question? Surly not someone that is better off going unnamed?

Also, any clue about the reference to the "proxy war"? Part of me has always felt that the recent political conflict about a whole lot more than just Thaksin, but perhaps I shouldn't speculate further for the time being...



PM appears willing to accept fate
TRT's future to be decided on Tuesday

POST REPORTERS - June 24, 2006

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra yesterday expressed readiness to submit to his fate, as the Office of the Attorney-General (OAG) set Tuesday as the date for deciding the future of his Thai Rak Thai party.

Mr Thaksin hinted that he was up against forces greater than he, and that it was best to resign himself to whatever might befall him.

"I have more opportunities than you do, but they come and go. My time as the prime minister must also come to an end," he said, presiding over an event to mark the fourth anniversary of the assets conversion office.

Mr Thaksin said his departure from office, however, may occur under the constitution or under pressure from an individual or a group of individuals.

A source close to Mr Thaksin said he was feeling disheartened by the political ambiguity surrounding the government and his party.

The Election Commission recently forwarded a report on alleged electoral fraud by TRT to the prosecution. It endorsed the findings that the ruling party violated article 66 of the Political Party Act, which says a party could be dissolved for any action deemed to be subversion of the democratic system and constitutional monarchy, or for acquisition of executive power by unconstitutional means, or for committing any act deemed a threat to national security, public order, or ethics and morality.

If the OAG decides to indict TRT and the Constitution Court rules against the party, TRT will be disbanded.

The source said Mr Thaksin had assessed the situation and concluded he was fighting a losing battle.

Cabinet members close to Mr Thaksin said he was becoming tired of fighting a proxy war. He believed he was pitted against a highly charismatic individual who was behind campaigns to oust him from office.

The individual in question was believed to be behind the resignation of his top legal experts, Borwornsak Uwanno and Visanu Krue-ngarm.

Mr Visanu revealed his plan to resign to the media on Thursday, only a few weeks after Mr Borwornsak stepped down as cabinet secretary-general.

Mr Thaksin shrugged off Mr Visanu's resignation, saying there were several others to fill the vacant seats.

Eyebrows were raised yesterday when Mr Thaksin announced that Mr Visanu's resignation would take effect today. Mr Visanu earlier said he needed more time to clear his work.

The source said Mr Thaksin was putting on an act when he stepped onto a stage and sold populist policies. Instead he was ready to step aside as prime minister and take advice from "non-partisan" individuals who would mediate to resolve the political crisis, said the source.

Mr Thaksin has been forced to step aside once, after the April 2 snap election, only to return shortly after the Constitution Court ruled the poll invalid. Party members were also left in the dark because he had failed to manage conflicts among factions, said the source.

Rumours were spreading that some key party members, including Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, Education Minister Chaturon Chaisaeng, and Finance Minister Thanong Bidaya, were considering leaving.

Mr Chaturon and Mr Thanong denied the rumours, while Mr Somkid neither denied nor confirmed the speculation.

He slipped past reporters at Don Muang airport when he arrived from France. In the evening, Mr Somkid showed up at the conference of the Federation of Thai Industries at the Regent Cha-Am Hotel in Phetchaburi and played down the rumours.

"I would like to encourage you guys [businessmen] to have more optimism by paying interest to a lot of business challenges coming in the future, rather than paying interest to whether I will resign or not," said Mr Somkid.

Meanwhile, the OAG-appointed panel concluded yesterday it can decide whether to indict TRT even though the EC did not press a charge against the party leader. OAG spokesman Atthapol Yaisawang said the prosecution cannot summon witnesses to testify and must make a decision based on the evidence submitted by the EC.

The panel will establish whether the two party executives implicated in the alleged bankrolling of small parties had acted with the party's consent.

If the panel finds that their act was not for the benefit of the party, it will send the probe findings back to the EC, which might call for a joint probe with the OAG.

[Scuba22]

I am hard-pressed to name more than perhaps one person who is both "highly charismatic" and could also be in a position to fight a proxy war as well as nudge top government officials to resign. Are there any others at all?

The Economist made a keen observation, though I'm not sure they realized how keen it was. In their coverage of the recent celebrations, they mentioned how the street protests, both pro- and anti-Thaksin were "just a piffle" compared to the sea of yellow. Indeed.

Many Thais are wearing yellow every Monday - today I counted 9/14 seats in my morning skytrain section in yellow (I'll keep count weekly!). This is not an organized campaign in the traditional sense, it is quite the viral meme. I'm betting it's going to continue.

It wouldn't surprise me if Thaksin's latest bouts of public whining are related to his realization that no matter what he does, he's still in a shadow. If he can hold on to his cash, it probably makes a lot of sense for him to quietly stand down until later. So here's some thoughts:

1. Backroom deal to let Thaksin keep his cash
2. Disband TRT, but blame others to let Thaksin save face and bow out
3. Thaksin lays low for some time while everyone else bickers
4. Thaksin comes back to save the day

What do you think?

Scuba22

[Naphat]

Another hint dropped in the editorial page:

Thaksin's foundation continues to crumble
VEERA PRATEEPCHAIKUL

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is losing yet another valuable human asset.


Visanu Krue-ngarm, a deputy prime minister, finally broke the silence to the press about his intention to quit the government last Thursday, thus putting an end to speculation about his political future with the Thai Rak Thai party which had been circulating for awhile.

Mr Visanu did not give a definite date of his departure, saying he had some unfinished work to attend to before he would actually resign. But he said he had already informed Mr Thaksin of his intention sometime ago and his boss did not raise any objection.

As a top government legal expert who has, on various occasions, smooth-talked the government out of difficulties over controversial bills and legal matters with his legal expertise, Mr Visanu's resignation represents a double blow to the government and Mr Thaksin in particular at a time when the prime minister's credibility is at rock bottom.

Two weeks earlier, another top legal expert, Borwornsak Uwanno, resigned as the secretary-general of the cabinet after serving in the post for about two years.

Whether Mr Thaksin feels abandoned by the loss of such a valuable asset might never be known from his own mouth, but, at least, he can be assured that Mr Visanu, who in his important position would know lots of sensitive inside information about the government that outsiders would love to hear, will not spill the beans once he is out of the government.

A gentleman who has faithfully served 10 governments and several prime ministers for the past 15 years, Mr Visanu told the press the other day that he had never criticised any governments for which he had served.

''If I go, I will not say what happened. Some people might do so, but I am different,'' he was quoted as saying.

Although Mr Visanu did not give an actual reason for his intention to resign, he at least offered hints about what was described as his apparent uneasiness with the way the government had rushed to turn the Suvarnabhumi airport and the surrounding areas into the country's 77th province without proper public hearings.

''When we fail to meet the three components of good governance—transparency, participation and legality—suspicions and doubts are inevitable,''he reportedly said.

But critics doubt disillusionment is the real and only reason prompting his decision to jump ship. They found it hard to believe that a man like Mr Visanu,who had faithfully served the Thaksin government for five years and who was involved in crafting several of the controversial laws himself, would suddenly become enlightened and decide he wanted to disassociate himself with the government.

Well-informed sources said Mr Visanu had been told by a very influential and respectable figure to quit the government.

This has made it very difficult for him tostay on.

With the departure of Mr Borwornsak, followed by Mr Visanu, the government will now rely on two party loyalists and legal experts, Pongthep Thepkanchana and Pokin Polakul, to deal with legal matters. These include contacts with the Royal Palace for bills or government announcements which require His Majesty's endorsement.

If anything, the departure of Mr Borwornsak and Mr Visanu signal something is changing among those who have faithfully served Mr Thaksin without ever uttering a dissenting voice against him in public.

Rather than defying their boss, which was likely to provoke his wrath, they chose to take a short cut by quitting.

It is only a matter of time before other self-respecting party members become enlightened, and feel ashamed of chanting ''Yes Sir!'' or nodding their heads in agreement everytime Mr Thaksin says anything—right or wrong, wise or foolish, it does not matter—and start to quit, leaving the dear leader surrounded by yes men and women.

Veera Prateepchaikul is Deputy Editor-in- Chief, Post Publishing Co Ltd.

[admin]

>I am hard-pressed to name more than perhaps one person who is both "highly charismatic" and could also be in a position to fight a proxy war as well as nudge top government officials to resign. Are there any others at all?

Are we talking about Prem here?

[Scuba22]

Well, I was thinking more about what Prem represents in his current position, but I suppose that's a very controversial topic. Does Prem speak for himself? Does he speak for a group of people? An institution? An individual? Hard to say.

Also, how is Prem seen by the Thai public? Would he be described as "charismatic"? I bet that he will be emerging as a very important person in the upcoming political ballet (or circus, or worse).

Cheers,

Scuba

[Naphat]

Breaking news from Krungthep Turakij (http://www.bangkokbiznews.com/2006/06/29/w001_116224.php?news_id=116224) - Thaksin is quoted as saying to senior civil servants:

"There are people who want to be prime minister using section 7 [of the constitution], so they cause trouble. When [Deputy PM] Wissanu and [former cabinet secretary] Bawornsak asked to resign, they talked about the efforts to persuade them to do so. There are people who try to create an interim government, then hold elections. All these actions are not democractic."

Scuba22: Prem does have a lot of influence and commands a lot of respect from Thais in general. He's president of the privy council and in the Thai press, his "title" is Senior Statesman. Read McCargo's article (http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/link.asp?id=w41370km85316483) for background and with a grain of salt.

[Wisarut]

Now, Thaksin is blaming the "Charisimatic Man" who is outside consitution jurisdiction as the one who pressure him.


Web Phan Fah dot com has poionted out the Media who go AGAIBST Thaksin -> Sondhi

However, Many people think PM is goign to Blame Papa Prem, Supreme Court, or even "Lord of Heaven" (HM) as the one behind this mess ....

REF:
http://www.thaiinsider.com/ex/ShowNews.php?Link=News/Political/2006-06-29/18-38.htm
http://www.manager.co.th/Politics/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000084361

[Tettyan]

Scuba22: Prem does have a lot of influence and commands a lot of respect from Thais in general. He's president of the privy council and in the Thai press, his "title" is Senior Statesman. Read McCargo's article (http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/link.asp?id=w41370km85316483) for background and with a grain of salt.

Ah yes, that article. Scuba, I e-mailed that to you the other day, so there should be no need for you to download it. It gives a little preview of what we can expect from the Handley book - seems like McCargo talked to Handley quite a bit before writing that piece. Take it with a grain of salt, yes - but it certainly helps explain a lot about what's been going the last few months. I think it also answers your question about why Prem made his recent comments about bilingualism in the deep south.

[Tettyan]

คนมีบารมี - so that's what's being translated as "highly charismatic individual"? Well, how many authority figures in this country could fit that description?

[Wisarut]

Now, the media seems to get the idea of that "highly charismatic individual". This must be papa Prem [Gen. prem Tinnasoolanone] who asked Visanu and Bowornsak (both come from Songkla as Papa Prem)

However, the derogatory reference toward Papa Prem by the Great Leader has one aim -> Destroy any Top Brasses who are goign to be the Great Shield Protyectign His Majesty and TRoyal Family.

Furthermore, there is a rumour that the policy of 17% Baht Depreciation in November 1984 by Papa Prem had RUINED the business of Thaksin and Pojamarn alogn with business of several brasses who they benefit from Strong Baht, so they are going to REVENGE against Papa Prem for this matter.

REF: http://www.manager.co.th/Daily/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000084877

http://www.manager.co.th/Politics/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000084614

[Wisarut]

Suriyasai said the plan for Defaming papa Prem is the first stem to Coup and Political Purge .... whcih ultimately -> The Royal Throne
http://www.manager.co.th/Politics/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000084840

Now, those from TRT has posted the followign message wichi totalll UNACCEPTABLE for Thai peopel:

Thailand will opt for a presidential system
Author: Siriphon Prousakh
Date: 30 Jun 2549 13:32

Thailand will have to implement French presidential system

The King could have responded to persistent requests to appoint a new prime minister by appointing an interim prime minister. He chose not to. Instead, he deferred to the courts.

This costly political impasse, which might not be resolved until next year, could have been avoided by a strong presidential system like that of France.

It appears that the King, who is 78 years old, acted as he did to warn his fellow countrymen to prepare for the day when they will be without him.

The king seems to realize that eventually Thailand will have to replace the monarch by a president as head of state and that the president will have to have considerable power, like the president of France.

Siriphon Prousakh
Bangkok

[Stephen Cleary]

Well, I guess i'm quite new at these forums, even though i've been viewing 2bangkok for a long time.

According to what i know - you are never going to know who this charasmatic gentlemen is, and it is not Gen Prem or His Majesty. I am not a big fan of Thaksin but this time round, i feel it unfair that his opponents are constantly asking him to name 'the person'. Of course, they know who he is, and they are taking the pish.

It looks like Thaksin has severly stepped on the wrong feet this time round.

It is all about.....business, but it is not Gen Prem.....

[Scuba22]

Thanks to everyone here for the insights and references regarding Prem. Even if every speculation needs to be taken with a graiin of salt, it's far more interesting to know the speculation than to be completely in the dark. Prem continues to be a mysterious figure to me, but the comments here and sources cited sure make for interesting reading.

Stevepuphan - I'm very curious to understand why you're so sure the individual isn't Prem. As far as Thakin's critics being unfair, isn't it Thaksin himself who publicly complained about this "charismatic person" plotting against him? He should realize that any public comment by a sitting Prime Minister, even a caretaker, is fair game - especially when that comment is an accusation of conspiracy against the Constitution. It doesn't seem at all unfair to me that people are hounding him to get specific on such an incindiary charge.

I am surprised that the papers have openly begun speculating about Prem. Even on this forum, we've been somewhat cautious about this question, yet it's being discussed publicly. Has anyone else noticed a sharp uptick in rumors and comments about topics that people generally didn't discuss before? Sure there were always rumors and stories about various people and relationships, but I am noticing it more and more - am I just paying more attention, or is the general speculative noise increasing?

It all makes me think that Tettyan is right about everything happening right now really being aboug jockeying for position for the impending power vacuum in Thailand. Despite his current problems, Thaksin is still best positioned for Thailand's "second post WWII age" - he's got the cash, the organization and the ambition. Sondhi and others are stepping into the game, but Thaksin has a big head start I think.

McCargo makes an interesting point (and the Handley book will probably get into this further) that the continued political chaos and immaturity in Thailand - unstable governments, no institution building, repeated coups, no coherent parties - was not accidental, that the polity was deliberately kept a mess in order to maintain the previous power structure covertly. Intentional or not, the covert form of the older power structure has survived, though it has been steadily declining. I can't see that surviving the transition to the second age - there is one possible uniting figure, but the public indiciations at least are that she doesn't want the job.

To be perfectly honest, the more I hear about all this and the more I think about it, the more sense it makes to me to get the hell out of here pretty damn soon. I think it's really going to be ugly.

Scuba22

[Tettyan]

Well, I guess i'm quite new at these forums, even though i've been viewing 2bangkok for a long time.

According to what i know - you are never going to know who this charasmatic gentlemen is, and it is not Gen Prem or His Majesty. I am not a big fan of Thaksin but this time round, i feel it unfair that his opponents are constantly asking him to name 'the person'. Of course, they know who he is, and they are taking the pish.

It looks like Thaksin has severly stepped on the wrong feet this time round.

It is all about.....business, but it is not Gen Prem.....

First, welcome!

Anyways, we can start with eliminating those who are definitely not the "charismatic figure". As someone on another forum mentioned, Thaksin would never dignify the likes of Sondhi or Chamlong by referring to them in such a way. So it's not likely to be his most vocal opponents.

Well, you mentioned "business". I recall a few weeks ago a local think tank put out a research note claiming that certain powerful interests in the business sector were pushing for Thaksin's removal. Usually, these guys just regurgitate what's said in the local papers, so this seemed a bit unusual. Of course, they could just be shooting from the hip again as they usually do.

So who else could be the one? If you want to talk about someone who has influence in the business community, as well as bureaucratic circles, and who's also no big fan of Thaksin, there's Anand. Here's where translation could be an issue - my gf argues that while Anand is definitely "charismatic" in the English sense of the term, he isn't necessarily someone considered to be คนมีบารมี.

Well, from today's BKK post:

In his Thursday comments, Mr Thaksin said certain individuals and entities which he branded as ''extra-constitutional'' were interfering with agencies set up under the constitution.

So who has the power to interfere "with agencies set up under the constitution"? Other than Thaksin himself of course? It doesn't seem like there are very many. McCargo's article posted by Naphat earlier in this thread (I strongly suggest you read this if you havn't yet) describes how certain figures without formal political roles exert substantial influence over political and bureaucratic appointments. But I should probably stop here.

BTW, has admin or any of the mods read the McCargo paper yet? I would love to be able to discuss it with others on the open forum, but I'm not sure if the material is kosher. Anyways, if any of you have time to read it, and you're comfortable with letting us discuss it here, please do let us know. Thanks.


McCargo makes an interesting point (and the Handley book will probably get into this further) that the continued political chaos and immaturity in Thailand - unstable governments, no institution building, repeated coups, no coherent parties - was not accidental, that the polity was deliberately kept a mess in order to maintain the previous power structure covertly. Intentional or not, the covert form of the older power structure has survived, though it has been steadily declining. I can't see that surviving the transition to the second age - there is one possible uniting figure, but the public indiciations at least are that she doesn't want the job.

To be perfectly honest, the more I hear about all this and the more I think about it, the more sense it makes to me to get the hell out of here pretty damn soon. I think it's really going to be ugly.

I agree. Thailand's democracy is far, far more immature than it even appears at first sight. The "network" McCargo refers to, which may appear to most observors as a "stabilizing" influence, may actually be delaying Thailand's day of reckoning. Though the comparison is often made, Thaksin certainly no Hugo Chavez. But if something isn't done about these problems, Thailand could very well end up with the real thing one day.

[GWR]

At least two mods have read it. I suspect you know where to draw the line somewhat better than I do.

[Wisarut]

The Dangrous Curve/Crossroad for Thaksin and Cronies
http://www.thaipost.net/index.asp?bk=sunday&post_date=2/Jul/2549&news_id=126629&cat_id=110200

Yongyut Opening Phraphutthachai National park in Saraburi for paramilitary Training to 1600 Forest Guards
http://www.thaipost.net/index.asp?bk=sunday&post_date=2/Jul/2549&news_id=126614&cat_id=110100

His Majersty know abvotu the contact between Thaksin and Bush ....
US Ambassador COmemnt that Somkid is much better successior than Sudarat
Nawin, Moh Liab, Moh Ming, and Yongyut (4 Eunuches) have abandoned Phoomtham .. after tehir conspiracies FOLDED ... and LEAKED into Papa Prem, and Privy Council

The Greaty Leader is Wearign black suit to cover the yellow t-shirt that have Royal power ... accordign to the Rusputin of Buriram ....

Even thogugh The Gtreat Leader Cliams abotu gogin to Germany for World Cup .... the Real thing is that Many Germans and Thai expats in Germany have BOOED the Great Leader .. They would NOT allow the Great Leader and Family to Live in Exile in Germany at alll ...

http://www.thaiinsider.com/ex/ShowNews.php?Link=News/NaNaJitTang/2006-07-01/12-24.htm

[Scuba22]

Thailand's democracy is far, far more immature than it even appears at first sight. The "network" McCargo refers to, which may appear to most observors as a "stabilizing" influence, may actually be delaying Thailand's day of reckoning.

From what I've seen, I'd say exactly the same thing about the economy and the financial system - the superficial trappics of modernity hiding chaos that is taken advantage of by people who know how to manipulate the system. In both cases, things sort of saunter along, making some people very rich, until the combined weight of inattention to structural matters inevitably leads to collapse. We've seen it in politics again and again (though now with a thought that it may have been quite intentional); in economics we've only seen it severely in 1997, but I suspect this was because the underlying inefficiencies in the Thai economy were masked for the past 30 years by abundant natural resources and cheap labor while China and India remained closed and bigger ASEAN economies like Indonesia and the Philippines were ruled by even more corrupt dictators.

Now, with rising fuel prices and serious competition, the economic blemishes are beginning to show - as Warren Buffet said, it's only when the tide goes out do you see who's swimming naked.

The end of the current age will be the political equivalent of the tide going out. It was interesting to read the idea that the indpendent institutions set up by the 1997 Constitution were meant to provide the same stabilizing influences as the "network" (how's that for a euphemism?); their complete co-option is a good preview of things to come, I'd say.

Incidentally, I was talking to someone who was convinced that the current age is a mere months away from ending - basing it mostly on estimations of health status seen on television recently. He hears the diplomatic corps expecting a military intervention fairly soon. I had thought this was all going to happen in 1-2 years; is there really a possibility that we're going to see a serious event before the end of the year?

Though the comparison is often made, Thaksin certainly no Hugo Chavez. But if something isn't done about these problems, Thailand could very well end up with the real thing one day.

Do people really compare Thaksin to Chavez? On populist rhetoric perhaps, but beyond that? Chavez seem like an old-school socialist to me, really believing in active wealth redistribution as a means to improve the lot of the poor. I don't think Thaksin has any political ideology other than to pump up his own stature, power and wealth. I can see that he really does want to be a Thai hero, but has no idea how to go about doing it, is still pulled back by his instincts to serve himself whenever possible, and has a boat-load of people who support him looking to be paid back for that support. He's written a lot of checks in the past 10 years or so, a lot of people aren't going to be happy if he doesn't pay them and takes his US$2 billion into exile.

Here's a scary thought - an upcountry Maoist rebellion ala Peru or Nepal in response to an increasingly insular and wealth-driven Bangkok economic polity? A Thai Fujomori? A Thai Gyanendra? Shudder....

Scuba

[GWR]

McCargo's article posted by Naphat earlier in this thread (I strongly suggest you read this if you havn't yet) describes how certain figures without formal political roles exert substantial influence over political and bureaucratic appointments. But I should probably stop here.

BTW, has admin or any of the mods read the McCargo paper yet? I would love to be able to discuss it with others on the open forum, but I'm not sure if the material is kosher. Anyways, if any of you have time to read it, and you're comfortable with letting us discuss it here, please do let us know.

I read it a second time and talked to someone about it. I see no reason, at the moment, why such a discussion can't take place.

[Wisarut]

In suhc a case, I better learn how to fire Heavy Machine Guns, Heavy Motar (105-mm type) to protect my family - or at worse - AK47 shooting :p

Now Khun Suriyasai Pointing otu that Thaksin 's Eunuchs are schmuign for Coup by applygin 5-step scheme

1) Spreadign RUmour that Thaksin is Bullied by Power that Be outside Constitution to Brainwash the mass

2) Accuscign the Enemies as coconspirators for the power that be .... to hide any evil deeds such as corruption, collusuion, cronyism, and harassing the enemies ....

3) Mass Agitation throguh those bureaucrat mechanism such as those in Mahatthai and Forest Dept ... alogn with bribery and kickback and coerction to thsoe police and Armed Forces .... to be ready for mobilization aroudn the clock

4) Targeting the enemies and oppositioons throguh applyign red zone in Chaign Mai and Udornthani

5) Putting people to COnfront so they can declar Emergency at the same day ther si the demostration by Aliance fo Democracy to overwheme those oppositions ... and if they is vilolent confrontation .... the Secret police, paramilitary forces and armed forces will coem to BUTCHER peopel as vermins and decrat Emergency Decree to Overthrow His Majesty ... if necessary ,...

Thosw who run the scheme REFUSE to answer the public about the failture fo administration such as corruption in policies, cronyism, media corection, privatization to the cronies, and tax evation .... They prefer to Silence the critics by creatign Year Zero sicne thye think Nobody can stop them from duign so.


REF: http://www.manager.co.th/Politics/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000085319

[Wisarut]

Well, at least 600 forest guards (plus 1000 hiden forces) in Saraburi has beocme paramilitary for AI Yongyut .... If we cout those in Lampang, Phrae, Chaing Mai, Chaing rai and Mae Hogn Son, Phichit, Phetchabut .... ther will be thousands ....

Democrat Point out 600 Forest guats have been under paramilitary training in Saraburi
http://www.manager.co.th/Politics/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000085294

However, most of them are unwillign to go for paaramilitary trainings ... but Ai Yongyut has coerced them to do so by threatenign to Kick them otu fo the offices or move ot Red Zones as they please ....

Caravan fo the Poor are Baing theri head Against Papa prem
http://www.manager.co.th/Politics/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000085380

Bowornsak said Ppa Prem NEVE ask him to resign fro mTRT
http://www.manager.co.th/Politics/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000085217

[Tettyan]

Incidentally, I was talking to someone who was convinced that the current age is a mere months away from ending - basing it mostly on estimations of health status seen on television recently. He hears the diplomatic corps expecting a military intervention fairly soon. I had thought this was all going to happen in 1-2 years; is there really a possibility that we're going to see a serious event before the end of the year?

Are we getting ahead of ourselves, or is the whole situation getting scarier than anyone could have imagined? There's another rumor going around that military units from the Northeast (which are believed to be loyal to a certain charismatic person) have been witnessed moving toward the capital in recent days.

Can't find the specific articles now, but there were several quoting anonymous TRT sources claiming that "time is not on the opposition's side". I certainly hope this does not mean what I think it might mean.

[Nekochan]

If there is going to be a coup as predicted by some social critics, so be it!! People will realised that Thai social development has not been a success as ones think.

Dr. Nithi wrote one of his weekly articles before about Mr. Samak's criticism to Gen Prem which eventually made him quit his talk show.

Should Mr. Samak been shown the door since he poisoned this society too much for the last 30 years? Or Gen Prem is untouchable?

He left a good question for us.

Mr. Taksin's days are numbered. But when people think they need to take action for what he said. I think that is wrong. It can only prove the existance of "extra constitution power". That's not really good to the society as a whole, particularly when Thai democracy always requires "external intervention".

The media praises the "heavenly bliss". But it only implicates the society is very immature.

Think about Queen Elizabeth makes comments about British policy in Iraq in public, broadcasted again and again on BBC. And more comments about Rooney's red card. (Should Ronaldo be axed from Man U?)

Then Mr. Prime Minister Blair uses any means necessary to get Ronaldo out of England by revoking Ronaldo's working permit.

The media held Mr. Blair great leader and his rating is all time high!:o

[Tettyan]

Well, from the larger context of the speech Thaksin gave to senior civil servants, it sounds pretty clear who Thaksin's referring to. And it doesn't sound he's just talking about Prem... :eek:

Interesting that he should also be meeting the Crown Prince. Don't want to propogate rumors here, but if they're true, this would certainly make a lot of sense.



LEGAL WARNING
Thaksin 'is violating the Constitution'
July 5, 2006

I would protect democracy with my life, says embattled PM as 'plot' row rumbles on

Legal expert Meechai Ruchuphan has warned that Thaksin Shinawatra, the caretaker prime minister, could be seen as violating Article 8 of the Constitution with his June 29 remark that somebody who has reserved power beyond the Constitution is undermining the democratic system.

In the article "The Responsibility of the Prime Minister" on his website (www.meechaithailand.com), Meechai said the media and most people believe the person who has reserved power and is most beloved by Thais is His Majesty the King.

Another person, who used to be in politics, has reserved power and is highly respected, is Privy Council President General Prem Tinsulanonda, who commands a position closest to His Majesty, Meechai added.

If Thaksin fails to clarify his remark, he would automatically be in violation of Article 8 of the Constitution, Meechai warned.

Article 8 of the Constitution states: "The King shall be enthroned in a position of revered worship and shall not be violated. No person shall expose the King to any sort of accusation or action."

Meechai highlighted several remarks in Thaksin's controversial speech, which was given before a meeting of senior civil servants last Thursday at Government House, as follows:

"Today an institution outside the Constitution - not in the Constitution - is a person, who has reserved power beyond the Constitution, who is creating turmoil in the constitutional system, without any respect for the rule of law.

"Somebody thinks that he is more important than the majority of Thais, so his voice must be louder or more meaningful than others, without any respect for the decision of the people.

"The heads of some institutions have allowed their institutions to become tarnished only because they would like to follow a request of somebody."

Thaksin has been fighting vehemently to stay in power by pushing for a new election - which he is certain that he would win - after the April 2 snap election was nullified by the Constitution Court.

However, his political fate is hanging in the balance, as the Constitution Court is to rule whether to dissolve his Thai Rak Thai Party, the Democrat Party and three other small parties for alleged violations of the election law.

Thaksin is feeling bitter that "influential persons" are trying to block, through the judicial process, his return to political power.

Yesterday Thaksin presided over a meeting of Thai Rak Thai to evaluate the next political move. He would not budge from his June 29 remark. "I know what I have said and the consequence of my remark. I would protect democracy with my life," Thaksin told party members. The party meeting became deadly silent for a while after Thaksin uttered this line, a source told The Nation.

Thaksin also had an audience with His Royal Highness Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn yesterday. He said only that it was a private audience with the Crown Prince. He also said he was not sure whether he would travel to Germany to watch the World Cup final as reported earlier, saying the possibility of his going was 50:50.

On Monday, a group of high-society ladies, some of whom are descendants of the Chakri Dynasty, came forward to blast Thaksin's controversial remark, which could be seen as offending the institution of the monarchy.

These ladies included Prapai Prasartthong-osoth, MR Rampi-arpa Kasemsri, ML Anong Ninoubon and Sumalee Viravaidhya. They want Thaksin to spell out the name of the person he alleged was trying to overthrow his government.

Samak Sundaravej, who has just been voted in as a senator, came out to support Thaksin, saying the premier does not need to spell out the name of the "influential person". He said the high-society ladies are only ordinary people and that if they want to know who the "influential person" is, they should look at the Constitution.

Former prime minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, a former ally of Thaksin, yesterday warned the premier to be more cautious with his words. He said he could not see the way out for the country yet, and that all the problems would have to be sorted out through legal means.

[Scuba22]

Interestingly, you don't see a lot of people jumping to Thaksin's defense - all I've seen is Samak... anyone else defending him? Where's Sudarat? Where's Somkid?

Regardless of the long-term power calculus, it doesn't seem like a lot of people are willing to take Thaksin's side in a battle against "the network" just yet.

Has Thaksin jumped the gun and gambled too much too soon with his comments?

Scuba22

[Naphat]

Tettyan:

Here's Meechai's piece (http://www.bangkokbiznews.com/2006/07/05/w017_117470.php?news_id=117470) in the original Thai from Krungthep Turakij. Aside from the quotes the Nation picks for the story below, Meechai picked up on many others including the one below:

"มีคนอยากเป็นนายกรัฐมนตรีมาตรา 7 ทั้งๆ ที่มีพระราชดำรัสรับสั่งออกมาแล้วว่ามาตรา 7 นั้น ไม่เป็นประชาธิปไตย เลยทำให้วุ่นวายกัน"

There are people who want to be prime minister using section 7 [of the constitution], even though His Majesty says [using] section 7 is not democracy - this just causes trouble.

I still think Thakin is targeting the operatives of the "network" and not its apex. One of the bad things about being informal and mostly working in the background is that your opponents can make you sound very sinister indeed, even if you mean well.

I don't know if I'm the only one, but I do feel that a lot of this is just a distraction - whoever Thaksin means by his statement, does it matter to Thailand's political future? Whatever happened to political reform, taking the EC to task or somebody articulating an alternative vision for the future to compete with TRT?

[GWR]

What's the local take on Meechai Ruchupan? During the events in 1992 and during the rest of the 1990s it always seemed like he was a bit of a spoiler, always inclined to dredge up some legal reason why sensible reforms could not proceed. And as such, he always seemed to be the sort of person that Thaksin would like to keep as a pet performing poodle. But I have noted of late that he has exhibited some reserve regarding the 'Young Thaksin Phenomenon'. ;)

[Wisarut]

After I take a look the Action by Ai Mak, It has copnvinced me that teh Big One want to take a throne so much that he asked Ai Maew and Ai Mak to do this dirty jobs for him ... Even though the Big One Knows that Ai maew will eventaully stab his own back instead of allowing his Boy to be next on the line ....

[Tettyan]

After I take a look the Action by Ai Mak, It has copnvinced me that teh Big One want to take a throne so much that he asked Ai Maew and Ai Mak to do this dirty jobs for him ... Even though the Big One Knows that Ai maew will eventaully stab his own back instead of allowing his Boy to be next on the line ....

WOW!

Someone's really in touch with the rumour mill! So you mean to tell me that "The Big One" doesn't really trust "Ai Maew"? What about the mother of "The Big One"?

Though a part of me has always felt that this is one of the key issues behind the current crisis, it strikes me as a bit odd. If anything, doesn't the whole mess actually hurt the chances for "The Big One"? It seems that it would have been best for him if things were humming along smoothly when the crucial moment came - just b/c the people are more likely to accept it when the stakes don't seem so high. Maybe he didn't expect it, but it seems all that's happened has made his job harder.

If you feel uncomfortable discussing this further on the open forum, please send me a PM.

[Wisarut]

For Mother of the Big One, She REALLY worried about his son who got those evil friends, firrst the right wingers such as Ai Mak and the mafia top brasses Seh Daeng, Sah Ice, Seh Himalai, Seh Yod and Co... and Later Ai Thaksin .... To Bar Somdej Prathep from standing on his way for good .... despite of the fact that she did not want to be in the throne at all ... She just wants to be a protector of the Throne .....

Look at the way Seh Daeng has Smeared Big Suea (Gen Phichit Kullawanit) & Big Surayut (Gen Surayut Julanone) and you'll see .... So far Seh Daeng has NOT smeared AGAINST Papa Prem Yet since Ai Mak and Ai maew's Henchmen have done such down and dirty job .....

// ------------------------------------------------
Well, The Big One has very strong distrust toward Thaksin after AI Maew's Son has trashed his private jet .... However, the Maciavillian Politics goes on ... ONLY those who know waht's going on ....
// --------------------------------------------------------

[Wisarut]

There are more rumour that both Big One and Ai Maew have come up with conspiracy by Bloody Purge of Sondhi and other Pro-Democratic NGOs ... (or even SOdej Prathep) thogu the Thugs in Black Uniforms of Ai Yongyut, Men in Khakhi of Chidchai and Co. and and those in Olive Green Fatigue of Seh Daeng, Seh Yod, Seh Ice, Seh Himalai and Co.

[Tettyan]

Interesting article from The Nation that Ron posted on the homepage the other day. As the current deadlock is prolonged, the political position of the army becomes even more critical. So whose side are they on? Most reports indicate that Army Commander Gen Sonthi is really Prem's man, though some anti-Thaksin critics dismiss him as just another lapdog of Thaksin. His behavior during the crisis so far indicates to me that he's a straight-shooter: witness his vociferous opposition to declaring a state of emergency back in March while some of Thaksin's close advisors were itching for a confrontation. His dismissal of reports of a possible assination plot against the caretaker PM also seems to show that he's just trying to do his job.

The next question is who controls the other key posts in the military. The Supreme Command of the Armed forces in under Gen Ruengroj, but although this position seems important, in reality it's not nearly as powerful as the post of Army Commander. Thaksin also seems to control the Navy and Air Force, but they're also not important - the Army is the key player. The Nation article discusses who controls the key Army field units - all are Thaksin men, though I think I recall back when tensions were high in March, Gen Sonthi shuffled a bunch of units around - possibly to forestall a coup?

One important thing the article doesn't mention is the police. A senior career government official (recently-retired) I spoke with not long ago said that the way things are positioned now, it's very difficult for the army to move without the acquiecense of the police, who of course are under Thaksin's firm control.

Wiz, you seem to know a lot about these issues - if you had any further thoughts on these matters, I'd be very interested to hear them.



Will it come to 'that'?
July 7, 2006

General Pornchai Kranlert, position: Assistant Army Commander-in-chief
Nobody knows for sure, but one of the most sensitive questions in the unfolding political turmoil is no longer being discussed in whispers. The Political Desk takes a look at the possibilities and at how well equipped Thaksin Shinawatra is militarily to survive politically

The eventual survival or demise of Thaksin Shinawatra, the landslide product of Thailand's "democracy", might - just might - be decided by anything but.

Although no one wants to see it happen, the possibility of a military showdown to settle one of the biggest political conflicts in modern Thai history has risen above the "taboo" line. For one thing, Thai politics and the role of the military have been interwoven ever since the 1932 bloodless coup to move from absolute monarchy to democratic rule.

The Kingdom has seen a number of coups, counter-coups and failed attempts to usurp power. Unique in Thai history is that such military intervention can work both ways - to overthrow an elected government or to enable a leader to cling to power.

Since the 1980s, the military has learnt a valuable lesson, with many coup attempts either defeated or forced to abort. The armed forces were not so invincible when faced with the opposition of the people.

When everyone thought the military take-over was a thing of the past, a clique of Chulachomklao Class 5 graduates managed to overthrow the Chatichai Choonhavan government in 1990. This was the last successful coup to date.

A coup of another kind, one staged by the government, has a perfect record of success. In November 1971, the Thanom Kittikhachorn government overthrew itself in order to shut down Parliament and rule by military might.

After the promulgation of the 1997 Constitution, which came into existence following political reforms triggered by the 1992 bloodshed, soldiers kept to their barracks and stopped meddling in politics.

When the Thaksin Shinawatra administration came to power in 2001, democracy was in full bloom. But a subtle gesture took place: Thaksin's former classmates from the Pre-Cadet Class 10 lined up to present the prime minister with a gift of a gold necklace with an amulet.

The gift had to be returned because of a cap on the value of gifts a prime minister can receive, though not before sending out its message loud and clear. The game of dispensing military appointments in exchange for backing the government had resumed once again.

In Thaksin's first term, his former classmates filled many key positions in the armed forces. This coincided with speculation that military officers had to secure his blessing if they wanted to advance their careers.

For the past five years, Thaksin has rigorously denied - but failed to dispel doubts - that he meddled in the annual military reshuffles.

The Pre-Cadet Class 10 and officers seen as close to the Thai Rak Thai Party were placed on the fast-track for promotion, although they did not dominate the combat forces like the old cliques from Chulachomklao Class 5 and Class 7 in the 1980s.

The bottom line was that Thaksin managed to place his military allies in such a way as to ensure his bargaining leverage, but not strongly enough to upset the balance of power in the armed forces, which might have backfired against his government.

After Thaksin won his second term last year, the opposition to his leadership began to gain momentum. In September, he went out of his way to override the list of military rotations drawn up by the Defence Council and pushed for his favourite officers.

In an unprecedented incident, the royal command for the annual reshuffle was stalled until the government amended some key appointments.

Following a compromise, Air Chief Marshal Chalit Pukbhasuk was the dark horse who secured the position of Air Force commander-in-chief.

Thaksin won a consolation prize with the appointment of his former classmate ACM Sukamphon Suwanthat as Air Force chief of staff.

He also had his way in naming Admiral Satirapan Keyanon as Navy commander-in-chief.

At the armed forces' helm, General Ruengroj Mahasaranont was promoted to the position of supreme commander after being handpicked by his predecessor, Gen Chaisit Shinawatra, who is Thaksin's cousin.

Thaksin engineered subtle changes in the Army to ensure the upper hand without attracting too much attention to his meddling.

He promoted Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin to the position of the Army commander-in-chief. Sonthi, a career soldier with a low profile, got his due reward based on merit. This top appointment helped to lessen the visibility of appointments to lesser but crucial posts.

Gen Pornchai Kranlert became the assistant Army commander while Lt-General Anupong Paochinda was elevated as commander of the 1st Army Region. Maj-General Prin Suwanthat filled the position of commander of the 1st Infantry Division.

All former classmates of Thaksin, Pornchai, Anupong and Prin occupy three combat positions proven to be indispensable in any military intervention. The three are seen as staunch allies of the embattled prime minister.

If and when a coup happens, either for or against Thaksin, the stand this trio takes will prove decisive to the outcome.

Pornchai is an artillery officer and has influence over the Army Air Defence Command, including its Anti-Aircraft Artillery Division. This division has a track record of staging both coups and counter-coups.

At the height of the street protests in February, Sonthi abruptly deployed his guards from the special warfare units in Lop Buri, replacing those from the artillery units.

It is noteworthy that Sonthi openly opposed the enforcement of a state of emergency while Pornchai kept mum on the matter. This power play occurred after Thaksin had made it known that he was ready to quell the protests by any means deemed necessary.

Anupong is an infantry officer with deep ties to infantry units in Bangkok as well as crack troops from the Queen's Guard of the 21st Infantry Regiment in Chon Buri.

Prin is from the infantry corps with extensive contacts with the military police from Army Circle 11 with jurisdiction over the capital.

In his present position, he also has the 4th Cavalry Battalion to dispatch armoured vehicles to secure Bangkok's strategic areas.

Last year, he spearheaded a veiled threat of military intervention in a bid to stop street protests organised by anti-Thaksin campaigner Sondhi Limthongkul.

The three Thaksin allies have a decisive say on infantry, artillery and cavalry units that would be needed to seize the capital.

As for other allies, Ruengroj could play a decisive role in securing communications and broadcast channels. Sukamphon could ensure aerial domination, while Satirapan would ensure Thaksin's safety because his house is located within naval jurisdiction.

Despite of the apparent advantage of Thaksin's Pre-Cadet Class 10 officers, the outcome of a military intervention is far from certain. This is because his allies do not have firm support from battalion commanders like in past coups.

Should the military card be played to end the political crisis, Thaksin's supporters and his opponents might not need to stage an outright coup.

For the government camp, military intervention may be deemed necessary only to the extent of allowing Thaksin to overcome political hurdles and contest the new election.

The opposition may have even less need for a coup as Thaksin could be removed from the scene by judicial due process.

The military intervention is likely to be more a show of force via unit mobilisations to force the other side to back down.

Thaksin's allies are expected make the first move to keep the government in power if the prime minister is faced with political demise. And a counter-move, if carried out in haste, might be the trigger to send the situation spiralling out of control.

[Scuba22]

Is there anyplace to get an org chart or something that shows the Army structure?

And then there's the "other" army of yellow shirts - so long as HM is with us, I can't see anyone opposing that army. After that though, I'd guess there will be a massive struggle for the loyalty of the yellow army. You can see how Thaksin is positioning himself as the natural successor, especially getting key figures into his corner - supposedly by financing their, ahem, habits.

Can Prem credibly make a move to retain the loyalty of the yellows? Can anyone else?

Scuba22

[Wisarut]

Illegitimated Government through SHAMEFUL Letters to US President and Leaders in otehr countries - with supports form the Old Left Like Sathian Janthimathorn (columnists in Matichon Daily),

http://www.manager.co.th/Daily/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000090050

[Tettyan]

Well, it appears the annual October military reshuffle is going to come out a bit early. A coincidence perhaps? Something big being planned? Did Thaksin forget that the list has to pass through Gen Prem before it can be endorsed?



Armed forces warned to prepare for a crisis
WASSANA NANUAM
July 14, 2006

Supreme Commander Gen Ruengroj Mahasaranont has warned the armed forces to prepare for a political crisis, as caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra ordered an early military reshuffle to shore up his political security. Gen Ruengroj yesterday met air force chief ACM Chalit Pukpasuk, navy chief Adm Sathiraphan Keyanont, police chief Pol Gen Kowit Wattana and army chief-of-staff Gen Sophon Silpipat, who attended on behalf of army chief Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin who was in Singapore on an official visit.

Armed forces spokesman Lt-Gen Palangkun Klaharn said Gen Ruengroj told them to be wary of the political situation and warned of a possible political crisis.

The supreme commander urged the armed forces and police to monitor the situation closely and keep social order.

''He also urged the armed forces which run their own media outlets to keep relaying His Majesty the King's comments to the nation made on June 9 and 12 so that all people abide by them,'' Lt-Gen Palangkun said.

He insisted political problems would be solved by political means and security agencies would do their duty and support the constitutional monarchy.

Any crisis could delay the 2007 budget allocation for the armed forces, he warned.

A military source said Gen Ruengroj told the armed forces chiefs to send him their military reshuffle lists by July 21. The lists would be sent to caretaker Defence Minister Thammarak Isarangkura na Ayudhaya for endorsement by July 27.

Mr Thaksin had ordered Gen Thammarak to finish the annual reshuffle lists by next month, the source said. Normally preparation of the lists starts next month and the changes take effect in October.

The source said Mr Thaksin wanted to reorganise the armed forces, possibly to strengthen his political power.

Gen Sonthi was likely to be ''kicked upstairs'' to become supreme commander and replaced by his assistant Gen Pornchai Kranlert, a former classmate of Mr Thaksin at the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School.

Meantime, a force of US marines is giving training in riot suppression, under the codename ''NLW'' _ standing for non-lethal weapons _ to a company of the 11th Infantry Regiment in Bang Khen.

The training course, which lasts until July 19, uses US-made gear including rubber bullets, pepper spray, stun guns, teargas and nets.

Maj-Gen Prin Suwannathat, commander of the regiment and also a former classmate of Mr Thaksin at the pre-cadet school, denied the training was connected to demonstrations by the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy.

He said it was aimed at coping with the violence in the South.

[Baton Rouge]

Where are we at here? I reckon about 11:50 PM.

I would not want to be one of the TRT Doubting Thomas's right now. I suspect that they are only now beginning to fully understand that what seemed like a good idea at the time is beginning to degenerate into a nightmare. These are definitely the desperate actions of a person fearful of having his assets confiscated. And early indications are he will stop at almost nothing. He's hardly alone. There must be several dozen other such despots doing more or less the same thing in the world right now.

I suspect we are in the 'Bribery Phase' right now. If that fails, it will be the 'Blackmail Phase'. Telecommunications are a wonderful asset for an extremely ambitious politician.

My guess is that there are a few veiled threats behind the light-hearted banter described in this Nation report this morning.

Thaksin teases Suranand over rumours that he will quit

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra teased PM's Office Minister Suranand Vejjajiva whom rumour said he planned to quit the cabinet soon, saying "Ah, you are still here."

Thaksin was speaking to Suranand upon arrival at Thai Rak Thai Party headquarter to chair a ceremony of his party's eighth year anniversary.

Suranand lined up with other senior party members to receive Thaksin, Khunying Pojamarn and his children at the entrance.

Thaksin was heard teasing Suranand, "Ah, you are still here. I heard that you are making up your mind (whether to resign or not)." Suranand answered with a smile, saying, "yes. Some reporters asked me whether I bring my resignation letter with me."

On Thursday, Suranand gave an interview upon arrival at the airport from a US trip, details of which some observers said reflected his unhappiness with the government's performance.

In a rare move contrary to his usual belligerent stance against government opponents, Suranand said if the current political uncertainties were allowed to continue, the country would be headed for ruin.

"We must hurry up. We can't let things go on like this, or uncertainties will continue forever. Every weekend, we have a feeling that [rival] mobs may clash. This is definitely not good for Thai society," he said.

[Tettyan]

This is not looking good. If Thaksin doesn't play his hand carefully, he could risk triggering a coup attempt against him. I can't imagine that the military rank-and-file would be very happy with political intervention to this degree. On the other hand, if a coup attempt fails, which is very possible, this could give Thaksin an excuse to crack down on all his opponents, a worse-case scenario IMO. Alternatively, if he manages to quietly slip his people where he wants them, well, Gen Prem could very well try another pocket veto, which doesn't really resolve the issue.

So it seems that Gen Sonthi really did let down Thaksin during the height of the PAD demonstrations in March. Does anybody have a better clue as to the debates going on in military circles back then?



Thaksin keeps quiet on Gen Sonthi's future
Online Update - July 14, 2006

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has kept his fingers crossed when asked whether he will replace Army Commander in Chief General Sonthi Boonyaratklin in the military reshuffle scheduled for October.

"Don't ask me a leading question about Sonthi as the military is in the process of drawing up the list for annual rotations," Thaksin said on Friday.

Speculation on the fate of Sonthi has spreaded after the Defence Ministry early this week instructed the armed forces to start preparing for reassignments.

Rumours in the military corridors have it that Thaksin may push for the promotion of Sonthi's assistant General Pornchai Kranlert to take the Army's helm.

Pornchai is a precadet classmate who is seen as a staunch ally of Thaksin.

Even though Sonthi secured his present position at Thaksin's blessing last year, he reportedly fell out of favour in March after refusing to rally behind the government should it deem neceesary to declare the state of emergency against street protests.

If and when Thaksin decides to pick a new Army commander, Sonthi is likely to assume the ceremonial position of supreme commander, replacing General Ruengroj Masaranont who is scheduled for mandatory retirement.

Outgoing Senator Seri Suwanpanont said Thaksin is about to politicise the military reshuffle if he has his way to promote Pornchai and other allies from the PreCadet Class 10.

"The armed forces will be demoralised and split if Thaksin opts for favouritism bypassing seniority and professional qualifications," he said.

Seri's colleague, Chirmsak Pinthong, called on members of the public to monitor and expose if Thaksin was trying to rig the military reshuffle list.|

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006/07/14/headlines/headlines_30008731.php

[Wisarut]

Underground Website to Smear AGAINST Papa Prem - Cutting ther right hand and brain trust of His majesty
http://www.manager.co.th/Home/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=94900000903161


Ajarn Sulak Sivalak said he did nto HATE Ai maew in person ... but He REALLY hates what did he has DONE to the country
http://www.manager.co.th/QOL/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000090487


The "Hightly Charisima person" asccording to the Thai literature experts
http://www.manager.co.th/QOL/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000090322

Dr. Prawet Warnign Thai PEOPLE NOT to be FOOLLED by Thaksin
http://www.manager.co.th/Politics/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000090600

Papa Prem Warnign that His Majesty and the Nation are the REALY owners of Armed Forces, NOT Prime Minister and Politicians
http://www.manager.co.th/Politics/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000090486

Dr. Sumet CONDEMNING Thai people who IMITATE Farang TOO MUCH whcih ONLY head to Disaster
http://www.manager.co.th/QOL/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000090648

[Scuba22]

This is not looking good. If Thaksin doesn't play his hand carefully, he could risk triggering a coup attempt against him. I can't imagine that the military rank-and-file would be very happy with political intervention to this degree.

I thought one of the possible outcomes is Thaksin deliberately engineering a coup to take over the government and place him in power - you don't think that's workable? Does anyone know where the loyalties of the rank and file are?

Scuba22

[Scuba22]

Dr. Sumet CONDEMNING Thai people who IMITATE Farang TOO MUCH whcih ONLY head to Disaster

Wiz - unfortunately I don't read Thai, but this comment is very interesting to me. What does it mean to "imitate Farang too much"?

[Tettyan]

I thought one of the possible outcomes is Thaksin deliberately engineering a coup to take over the government and place him in power - you don't think that's workable? Does anyone know where the loyalties of the rank and file are?

That's certainly still a possiblity, I was just mentioning several other possiblities that happened to pop into my mind. But it seems that for whoever wants to engineer a coup, be it for or against Thaksin, faces enourmous risks, with events likely to spiral out of anyone's control.

I'm not an expert on the Thai military, but if push came to shove, my guess would be that the rank-and-file would go with Gen Prem over Thaksin. Just look at the furore within the army when Samak attacked Gen Prem on his TV show back in March. However, Thaksin has been working to fill critical (if low-profile) positions with his men - but to what extent these folks can command the loyalty of the rank-and-file is not a question I can answer. Any other takers?

[GWR]

The tragedy is that neither side probably has much to offer the average citizen other than further decades of cynical exploitation:-

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006/07/15/headlines/headlines_30008782.php

POLITICAL TURMOIL
Military 'must back King'

Prem reminds soldiers of their duty to His Majesty and their country as leaks point to a purge of disloyal officers


The top adviser to His Majesty the King yesterday called on the military to rally behind the monarchy and the nation.


Privy Council president General Prem Tinsulanonda told professional soldiers to support King and Kingdom.


"Soldiers are like horses, and governments are jockeys but not owners. You belong to the nation and His Majesty the King," Prem said.


In delivering a lecture to 950 Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy cadets, he told them to embrace professionalism.


His remarks come during a time of national political turmoil triggered by an annulled general election and uncertain preparations for a new vote scheduled for October.


This electoral indecisiveness happened amid a power play in the armed forces as the government and its opponents tried to outwit one another.


Leaks from the government camp indicated an imminent purge of officers seen as having questionable loyalty.


Prem's message was designed to remind soldiers of their allegiance to the country.


Political and military observers viewed the lecture as a response to a June 29 statement by caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra that blamed a "charismatic figure" for transgressing the Constitution to overthrow the government.


Prem delivered his message with full military pomp as he and other senior officers donned combat uniform and the black beret of the Cavalry Corps.


Among the officers lining up behind Prem was Army Commander-in-Chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, reportedly slated to be promoted upstairs if Thaksin has his say.


Also present at the lecture were former military leaders, including Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, Surayud Chulanont, Oud Buangbon and Pongthep Thesprateep.


Prem began his address by portraying the military academy as a melting pot that transformed cadets into career soldiers.


"Every cadet and officer is bound together for life because we consider ourselves the offspring of the academy's founding father King Chulachomklao [Rama V]," he said.


All Chulachomklao graduates pledged allegiance to the flag of the Cadet Corps in front of the King Rama V statue, he said.


He urged soldiers to strive to do good, uphold discipline and the integrity of the uniform and serve His Majesty.


Soldiers preserve national security and protect the country far beyond the terms of any government, he said, hinting that every soldier must follow orders without compromising his service to the King.


"Every soldier should understand and distinguish the military's stance, the government's position and his service to King and country," he said.


Some governments are good, some bad, but soldiers have to serve long-term goals, not short-term gain, he said.

[Wisarut]

Now, Some of Interneet Mercenary has hacked into manager.co.th to remove the controversial article abotu the website "Ranmuangthai" whcih show SMEAR campaign AGAINST Privy Council, esp Papa prem ...

However, it has been restored back now:
http://www.manager.co.th/Home/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000090316

Now, Internet Mercenary have used Smear Campaign that "Papa Prem is an old homo general" in the same way Dusit 99 Group led by Supoer K has DONE this down and dirty thing before ... :(

[Tettyan]

Well, it seems that the grumbling has already begun. The rank-and-file are sure to be unhappy with any apparent direct political intervention in the promotion process.



Brass unhappy with rumours Pornchai will get army job

WASSANA NANUAM

July 15, 2006

Military top brass are trying to frustrate the government's military reshuffle plan that will see a classmate of caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra take the position of army commander instead of Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin. Earlier, reports emerged that Gen Sonthi might be ''kicked upstairs'' to become supreme commander and replaced by his assistant Gen Pornchai Kranlert, a former classmate of Mr Thaksin at the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School.

However, top brass are concerned about any move to promote Gen Pornchai, which they believe might do harm to the military's image as a nonpartisan institution, a source in the Supreme Command said.

If Gen Pornchai was made army chief, the government would encounter broad criticism of cronyism, and that the prime minister was looking after his friends.

Another candidate who could get the job of army chief might be Gen Boonsang Niempradit, the deputy supreme commander.

Gen Boonsang, who will retire in 2008, is widely accepted as a professional soldier, the source said.

According to the source, the general appeared to be an acceptable choice for both Mr Thaksin and Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, chief of the Privy Council.

The only problem for Gen Boonsang is that he did not graduate from Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy, a prerequisite for the top army position.

He finished his studies at West Point Military Academy in the US.

However, another army source said if no one was suitable to replace him, Gen Sonthi still stood a good chance of continuing as army chief.

Gen Sonthi yesterday insisted Mr Thaksin would hold talks with him first if he is likely to be transferred to a certain post.

Gen Sonthi said any transfer mainly depended on his boss' decision. The Defence Ministry gave leeway to the army for any military reshuffle, depending on seniority and experience.

However, if any transfer took place, Mr Thaksin would discuss the issue with him first because he had worked with him a long time. Mr Thaksin, for his part, yesterday refused to comment on the speculation.

''You don't have to ask me. I have no answer.

''Everything has its own system. Do not ask me about that now.''

When asked if it was appropriate to kick Gen Sonthi upstairs when he had only served one year as army chief, Mr Thaksin said:

''How is it related to that? I have not said anything at all.''

[Scuba22]

The noise surrounding the army appointments seems louder than usual to me - is it just because I'm noticing it more, or is this really extraordinary? Is it normal for Prem to emphasize that the soldiers' loyalty is to "King and country" as opposed to the "government" - drawing a distinction between the two? Why would anyone say that unless there was concern of a division between government and King/country?

Same for Thaksin - why would he talk about "extra-Constitutional figures" and send letters to other governments explaining his democratic credentials unless he was planning on using the army to "protect" the Constitution and democracy? I can't see any other rational purpose for these actions, and I'm loth to think he's just behaving irrationally.

But then, I also thought that the point of annual army-reshuffles was deliberately to NOT allow for personal loyalties within the rank-and-file, to prevent commanders from creating their own little private armies.

Any word on the King's health?

Scuba

[Wisarut]

His Majesty got better ... but still at fragile halth :(

[RAMPAGE]

The noise surrounding the army appointments seems louder than usual to me - is it just because I'm noticing it more, or is this really extraordinary? Is it normal for Prem to emphasize that the soldiers' loyalty is to "King and country" as opposed to the "government" - drawing a distinction between the two? Why would anyone say that unless there was concern of a division between government and King/country?

Same for Thaksin - why would he talk about "extra-Constitutional figures" and send letters to other governments explaining his democratic credentials unless he was planning on using the army to "protect" the Constitution and democracy? I can't see any other rational purpose for these actions, and I'm loth to think he's just behaving irrationally.

But then, I also thought that the point of annual army-reshuffles was deliberately to NOT allow for personal loyalties within the rank-and-file, to prevent commanders from creating their own little private armies.

Any word on the King's health?

Scuba

No, you are not just "noticing it more". We have entered Act III. Pa Prem is reminding the troops as to where their loyalties should lie.Thaksin is about to bounce the Royal Decree authorising the October 15 election back to the King even though HM has already rejected it once.

Thakin's notorious speech was the opening salvo in the final act. He has declared war on the Monarchy and a lot of eggs will be broken before this omelet is finished.

I said five years ago this was Thaksin's agenda and everyone said I was nuts...the Thai people would never allow him to get away with such effrontery I was told.....well...watch this space. I stand by everything I said five years ago and so far most of it has come true.

[Scuba22]

I think a lot of us were taken aback by the royal confirmation of the 15 Oct election date - though that plus the military transfers may have prevented a coup... but now that the EC has been given a prison sentence, I'm wondering if the "network" has some kind of plans for the 15 Oct vote.

Are the courts pretty much part of the network? Has Thaksin infiltrated them at all? It seems that a fair number of court verdicts have been coming out against TRT, and there is speculation that the most famous pro-TRT ruling, on Thaksin's asset concealments, may have been pushed by the network.

How about some idle speculation and conspiracy theories? Here's my take:

The network is clearly showing its muscle, through the military transfers and the courts. On the TRT side are people with money, the rural upcountry, and a few remaining technocrats like Somkid. The most reliable support is from the rural upcountry - but this is also where the network has its tentacles. If some kind of strong anti-Thaksin play is mounted by the network in the upcountry, the money and the technocrats will start seeing Thaksin as a liability rather than an asset. The Paesano Six meeting is already indicating preparations for a post-Thaksin TRT... perhaps this has network backing?

TRT has established a pretty strong secondary-network in the countryside. Is it possible that by removing Thaksin from the equation, the primary network will try to absorb the TRT network? can TRT survive without Thaksin?

ooooh, this is going to be interesting....

Scuba22

[Wisarut]

For the Pro-Thaksin Nertwork, they have the most dangerous of all ... the Southern Isan network of the RED GUARD .... run by Newin, Ai Moh Liab and Moh Mink (AKA Comrade Charan - an alumni of Suan Kularb College and Mahidol University) :rolleyes:

For the case of Comrade Charan, he DID DID involved in RED Guard metter by Stormign the Library to Burn down the books! :eek:
REF: http://www.manager.co.th/Politics/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000094621

[PeterB]

How about the low profile criminal court case filed against Thaksin by American business man William Monson in connection with the IBC deal? Monson won at the civil court in the matter and is now suing Thakin for theft and fake charges, an offense carrying up to 7 years imprisonment. Next episode in this legal challenge is expected in September.

If Thaksin gets a conviction, this will immediatly end his political life.

It would allow the Courts to end it for Thaksin, while nobody could blame the opposition, the PAD or any other (Thai) parties directly related to the current standoff.

Interesting times indeed...

(for more details about the IBC case, click here (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006/05/09/headlines/headlines_30003604.php))

[Tettyan]

I remember hearing rumors about elements of "the network" trying to sway the outcome of the crisis as early as February, but I didn't recognize it as such then. Aside from the McCargo paper, who would have known that the other piece of information that has caused me to rethink this issue is an article from today's edition of Sondhi's rag?

On a more general note, it seems as if more and more people of all points of view are becoming less shy about openly discussing "the network". I wonder how long this will last.

http://www.ihtthaiday.com/IHT/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000095260


Criminal Court verdict was predictable
By Daniel Ten Kate 26 July 2006
On a practical level, yesterday’s Criminal Court decision to imprison the election commissioners appeared inevitable.

Election Commission Chairman Wassana Permlarp saw it coming as early as three months ago. “I did everything under the law, but I will become a scapegoat soon,” he said in early May. “Is this right?”

Many people will certainly think so. The three election commissioners were widely seen as cronies of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and the dubious decision to let small-party candidates switch constituencies in the April 23 by-election ultimately proved to be their undoing.

But while the commissioners were no angels, the deck was certainly stacked against them. For starters, the decision to hold the election on April 2, 37 days after Thaksin dissolved the House of Representatives, was reportedly heavily influenced by the Privy Council. The palace advisers wanted an elected government in place for the royal celebrations on June 9.

When the main opposition parties threatened to boycott the election, the EC offered to move the date back. But Democrat party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva insisted on the boycott no matter when the election took place.

The boycott led to a potential constitutional crisis, because the 1997 charter does not specify what happens if 500 MPs are not in place before Parliament is scheduled to convene 30 days after the election. The ambiguity led the EC to hurriedly try to produce a full quorum.

Five days before a scheduled third by-election, His Majesty the King called one-party elections “undemocratic” and urged the country’s top judges to sort out the political “mess.” The Administrative Court then quickly halted the April 29 run-off – reversing a decision it had made a week earlier – and the Constitutional Court proceeded to nullify the election soon afterward.

The court verdict that voided the election appeared to absolve the EC of responsibility, saying “the intention of the EC for planning the new election is honest and aimed at creating fairness.”

But then the leaders of the Administrative, Constitutional and Supreme courts, operating in the name of His Majesty the King, made an extraordinary extra-judicial call for the election commissioners to resign.

They still refused to budge, claiming that they had done nothing wrong, and the Democrat party filed a lawsuit against the commissioners in Criminal Court. Supreme Court judges also refused to nominate candidates to fill the two vacant positions on the EC, which is one of their constitutional duties.

With the fate of the election commissioners in the hands of the judges who wanted them out, it wasn’t hard to predict yesterday’s verdict. But the severity of the punishment still surprised many legal experts.

“What the election commissioners did was illegal,” said Jade Donavanik, dean of law at Siam University.

“But the off-court politics can give the impression that the decision is political. It was like they set up a flag of where they wanted to go and applied whatever laws it took to get to that flag.”

As if four years in prison wasn’t harsh enough, the Appeals Court also denied the commissioners bail. This may be a short-term measure to legally force the commissioners out of their jobs, but that does not excuse the fact that the judges had “no legal grounds” to deny them bail, according to legal expert and former senator Kaewsan Atibodhi.

In the end, the EC was positioned as the perfect whipping boy in an all-out power struggle that brought the country to the brink of violence. With the commissioners behind bars, a new “free and fair” election can proceed on October 15.

All parties will contest, and Thai Rak Thai still looks set to win comfortably, assuming, of course, that the judges don’t dissolve Thakin’s party in the meantime.

[BangkokPundit]

For starters, the decision to hold the election on April 2, 37 days after Thaksin dissolved the House of Representatives, was reportedly heavily influenced by the Privy Council. The palace advisers wanted an elected government in place for the royal celebrations on June 9.

A great find. Can I play devil's advocate for a minute. Is the network actually opposed to Thaksin/TRT remaining in power? I ask because, unlike some other leaders in the 90s who lasted barely a year in power before the network sent them to the sidelines, Thaksin has been in power for 5 years. The network could be sending a message, play by the network's rules if you want to stay in power. One clear indication on what TRT's plans are vis-a-vis the network will be who will be the Army Commander-in-chief at the end of the year? If is Gen. Sonthi or another solider close to Prem then this might be a sign that TRT is willing to play the network's rules. The question the network will have to ask, are the Democrats going to play by the rules? A weakened TRT willing to play by the rules might be a better bet that the Democrats.

[GWR]

I suspect you're really onto something with the idea that the 'Network' can possibly live with a TRT Govt. that will broadly follows the rules. I'm sure there is an awareness on both sides that a disgruntled Isaan mob could drag the country into civil war. And that most certainly is not good for business.

[BangkokPundit]

I suspect you're really onto something with the idea that the 'Network' can possibly live with a TRT Govt. that will broadly follows the rules. I'm sure there is an awareness on both sides that a disgruntled Isaan mob could drag the country into civil war. And that most certainly is not good for business.

The 'Network' probably realises that TRT are likely to be part of the next government, whether on their own or as a member of a coalition. The stick has now being shown so just wait for TRT to respond.

[Scuba22]

The network is not about to go away, and from what I hear, TRT has done a pretty decent job in creating its own network. Both have extensive undergound presence. But I don't think a country can survive with two competing underground networks. It would appear to me that both are trying hard to both undermine and co-opt the other.

The TRT network, or more specifically Thaksin himself, is rumored to be paying the bills for someone who can be positioned as the "leader" of the non-TRT network. To do this effectively, TRT must also undermine other potential "network-leadership" challenges - perhaps from a certain charismatic person or a certain woman who is also quite charming.

As for the network living with TRT, the key must be to remove Thaksin - I can't see co-opting him, he has too much of a personal following and is also too unpredictable and irrational. For the old network to co-opt TRT, it would mean undermining Thaksin personally, and then cutting deals with TRT without Thaksin, e.g. the Paesano six.

The key to all this is Thaksin himself. If removes himself from the equation, the network can include the TRT in its historical power-broking. But the problem is that Thaksin has developed a base of personal support, and removing him while that support remains risks alienating large portions of the country who have just begun to recognize their political voice. This does not bode well, especially as there are no other unifying leaders on the radar.

If Thaksin stays, the situation must be worse - it must lead to a prolonged power struggle and possibly violence.

None of these scenarios is conducive to political maturity in Thailand. Thaksin's success in a democratic system clearly shows how a democracy can be manipulated. None of Thaksin's policies holds water on close examination - they are all window dressing with no substance. However, it takes time for this to be evidence. It would have been much better to leave him in power until the inevitable results of his ill-thought out policies became clearer to his supporters and they started deserting him. It would have been a painful learning process, but the alternative we have now is no less painful and far less certain.

Scuba22

[Tettyan]

A great find. Can I play devil's advocate for a minute. Is the network actually opposed to Thaksin/TRT remaining in power?

I wondered the same thing a while back. I believe that Scuba makes a very good case on a strucutural level on why the two networks are inherently in conflict with each other. On the other hand, the relationship between "the network" and Thaksin may not be as black-and-white as McCargo argues, with conflict sometimes tempered by cooperation on some issues. For instance, a friend of mine argues fairly convincingly (without trying to interpret the cryptic annual birthday speeches) that certain elements of "the network" were involved in the "war on drugs"

[Scuba22]

It's always a mistake to treat an institution as monolithic. Even though both the network and the TRT are symbolized by a single person, both are subject to substantial internal and external forces and there are definitely different interest groups within each. At the individual level, personal calculus also comes into play, and allegiances can quickly shift. I don't see the type of hard-core ideological passion that never allows any compromise.

This fluidity allows for a potential merger of sorts, but it also makes the evolution of the system that much harder to track and predict. We're all wondering where the loyalties of various factions of the military lie - generals, battallion commanders, and even frontline soliders. Just the fact that we don't know shows how voatile the situation is. Same with the yellow shirt army, or the TRT cadres - what happens if/when the respective leaders are gone and various others claim to be the rightful standard-bearer?

I don't think we can (or should, in fact) avoid a painful realignment of Thai politics. This could have happened in the 50's and 60's, but forces of nationalism and anti-communism with funding help by the US created the network that stunted this development. I don't see the same forces today. The only leader who could pull off a continued retardation of Thai political development is Thaksin, and he's trying his damndest, but without solid military support (he needs his own Sarit or Prem) or far more economic support (Thaksin's fortune is peanuts compared to the CIA budget), he's not going to be able to support a regime as unquestioned as the network has been for the past 60 years.

Until 1997, Thailand had a longest largest growth of any country in history (China may have overtaken that by now), but it came at the cost of political immaturity and various imbalances, e.g. extraordinary wealth for some and very little for others. Very few of these imbalances have really been fixed in the "recovery", and political maturity is still far off.

The storm has already started and it will get worse. Whether Thailand will come out of it reinvigorated and modern, or just descend into chaos is yet to be seen. Personally, I'm betting on chaos.

Cheers,

Scuba22

[Wisarut]

Political Polarization ... Nearty Sprit Country into North and South
http://www.thaiinsider.com/ShowNews.php?Link=News/Political/2006-08-03/18-31.htm

Thaikorn Point out that Soemsak Phongphanit has received Kickback from TRT to participate in Election Frauds of April 2, 2006
http://www.thaiinsider.com/ShowNews.php?Link=News/Political/2006-07-29/13-48.htm

Third Army Commnader askign people to go AGAIBNST Politicians who ABVUSE ROyal Speeches for theri own selfish interests
http://www.thaiinsider.com/ShowNews.php?Link=News/Political/2006-08-03/17-31.htm

SEC Affairs on 73 billion Baht SHin Corp Deal with Ample Rich
http://www.thaiinsider.com/ShowNews.php?Link=News/Economic/2006-08-03/10-28.htm