Election results

[Tettyan]

Well, we have a general picture of how Sunday's poll went. Some results were not surprising - a bare majority in Bangkok rejected Thaksin's party, while most TRT candidates in the south failed to make the 20% hurdle. But for a political junkie like me, there were plenty of surprises in store. Considering that vote-buying and campaigning activities (they usually go together) was less rampant this time owing to fewer candidates, you might even say that this election sheds some light on the true nature of the Thai electorate.

Anyway, the surprises to me-

High TRT support in non-Democrat opposition strongholds - This includes Chart Thai leader Banharn's stronghold in Suphan Buri and former TRT dissident Sanoh's home turf of Sa Kaew. Support for TRT candidates in these areas handily topped abstentions, even though Banharn and Sanoh lent their support to the "no vote" campaign. TRT also did quite well in Phichit, home to Mahachon Party leader Sanan.

Failure of TRT in Petchaburi 1 to clear 20% hurdle - Petchaburi is in the western part of the central region. Some people play up the fact that it is near the south, but it is culturally very much of the central region. That the province has historically contained pockets of Democrat support (for whatever reason, I don't know) may have played a role in the result, but I would have never predicted that the TRT candidate would fail to even get 20%.

TRT maintains solid support in Bangkok suburbs - These are areas that are included in regular opinion surveys. These areas solidily supported TRT in the last two elections, and it seems the anti-Thaksin campaign in nearby BKK didn't dent TRT's support here at all.

Failure of Kamman Po's machine - The power of the Khunpluem family's electoral machine in the Eastern Seaboard is legendary. But it seems that the machine is creaking, and a little bit rusty. Abstentions topped votes for TRT candidates in 6 of 8 Chonburi constituencies and 3 of 4 Rayong districts. Could the fact that Kamman Po is currently "ill" and appealing his 30-year murder conviction be a factor? This didn't stop them from sweeping both provinces last year though.

[GWR]

Yes, it looks as if Kamnan Pho and his ex-Tourist Minister son may have outlived their usefulness, and are now going to find out something significant about the degree of honor amongst thieves.

I'd also like to know on what you base your conclusions about votebuying. My observation is that votebuying and strategic candidate buying actually increased with the advent of Thaksin as a PM candidate. I hadn't noticed any lack opf people enjoying their pre-election windfall this time, even in an area where he is not exactly considered top-dog. We should never buy into the Thaksin spin that he is a reformer, a non-votebuyer and anti-corruption in his own high places.

My nomination to Newin Chidchob as the leading arselicker and general bad mother of the 2006 election, for the second election running. I think we can safely assume that Newin has PM aspirations. Why not? Every other idiot has already had a go!

[Tettyan]

I'd also like to know on what you base your conclusions about votebuying. My observation is that votebuying and strategic candidate buying actually increased with the advent of Thaksin as a PM candidate. I hadn't noticed any lack opf people enjoying their pre-election windfall this time, even in an area where he is not exactly considered top-dog. We should never buy into the Thaksin spin that he is a reformer, a non-votebuyer and anti-corruption in his own high places.


I'm not talking about 2001 or 2005 - those were the dirtiest elections ever. I'm talking about just this time around - with so many non-competitive elections, vote buying is down overall . We know that all parties (even the opposition) buy votes. But people don't have to be paid to abstain - so considering that and the number of abstentions, I'd say this election is quite telling about how the Thai people actually feel. At least it seems more reflective than ordinary elections.

[GWR]

As far as I know, they were paying people not to abstain. After all, Ice T was honor bound to make his 50%. I suspect that TRT paid as much as ever, but the election was missing the Democrat, Chat Thai and other inducements. By that reckoning, he's still his old old dirty self.

But actually, it isn't exactly expensive is. You aim to get 20 Million votes, you might only have to spend 1,000 Baht (probably a bit too much anyway) on a third of the voters. The others follow like sheep to the slaughter. Perhaps 7,000 Million Baht, which is chicken feed to a party of hirollers who might well multiply their investment tenfold.

[Tettyan]

Well... makes the matter of election details academic now, but I'm still interested in seeing the full results (where are you Election Commission???).

[GWR]

Channel 11 Newsline this evening let out the news that Sudarat Keyuraphan is thinking of leaving TRT. Disappointment about not being viewed as a replacement perhaps. In theory, she was high up the pecking order (No. 3 on one list); although it seems no one ever thought she could make it to the top slot.

:) I say that's exactly what you get when you try to build a party that has no organic ideology. Real parties take a long time to grow. Spare us all from these people who think they can buy happiness!

[Tettyan]

Channel 11 Newsline this evening let out the news that Sudarat Keyuraphan is thinking of leaving TRT. Disappointment about not being viewed as a replacement perhaps. In theory, she was high up the pecking order (No. 3 on one list; although it seems no one ever thought she could make it to the top slot.

Of course she couldn't make it to the top! Refer to Wiz's earlier posts on the matter.


The leader with Square Face has chosen Ee Waen Hee Men (Sudarat) as the one to repalce him ... even though it might cause House Burnigng at Chan Song lah palace

So yes, things will be very tough for Sudarat w/o Thaksin in the drivers' seat.

[GWR]

Those eleven plus factions might well end up being an even bigger headache than Sondhi. Again, I have no sympathy. I look at the list of TRT big knobs and I see a bunch of carpetbaggers who have precious little in common. Only a man in a desperate hurry to be a PM at any cost would inflict such a rabble on himself. They deserve each other! :mad:

[RAMPAGE]

Here's a wee election nugget the mainstream media seem to have missed:

Question: Which constituency in Thailand recorded the highest (69%) NO vote?
Answer: Sampuntawong (Bangkok's Chinatown)!:)

[The Enforcer!]

Here's a wee election nugget the mainstream media seem to have missed:

Question: Which constituency in Thailand recorded the highest (69%) NO vote?
Answer: Sampuntawong (Bangkok's Chinatown)!:)
A prophet is not without honour, save in his own country, and in his own house!

The Enforcer!

[GWR]

Of course she couldn't make it to the top! Refer to Wiz's earlier posts on the matter.



So yes, things will be very tough for Sudarat w/o Thaksin in the drivers' seat.
Yes, it appears she is taking off on a sabbatical. It is quite openly acknowledged that she doesn't see eye-to-eye with 'er indoors with the Chiang-Mai Bouffant

[GWR]

An EC with copper or squaddie involvement is always going to appear dodgy. And it does seem like they are taking a long time to finesse the result. Perhaps its partly because there are reports that the ballot spoilage is about 2 million, up 1 million from what was being said 24 hours earlier.

[Tettyan]

The reason why the unofficial reports appear conflicting is there is a wide discrepancy between spoiled votes on the constituency ballots vs the party list ballots. As far as I know, there are about 1.5 mil spoiled party list ballots while there are 3 mil for constituency ballots. One explanation could be that voters for minor parties could have checked the same number for both ballots, even though the party may not have run a candidate in the constituency. Before seeing the official results though, it`s difficult to speculate further on this point.

[Tettyan]

Yes, it looks as if Kamnan Pho and his ex-Tourist Minister son may have outlived their usefulness, and are now going to find out something significant about the degree of honor amongst thieves.


It just keeps getting worse and worse for the Khunpluem clan. Who`s going to bail them out this time?



LAWSUIT
Kamnan Poh's daughter sues Amlo over seized B13.4m
April 6, 2006

The daughter of Somchai Khunpluem, alias Kamnan Poh, has sued three officials from the Anti-Money Laundering Office (Amlo) for malfeasance and making false statements in the seizure of a 13.4-million-baht cash deposit belonging to her. Lawyer Chamnan Chadit yesterday represented Jiraporn Khunpluem in lodging the lawsuit with the Criminal Court against the Amlo officials _ acting secretary-general Pol Col Yuthaboon Dissamarn, inspector Pol Lt-Col Sunai Haruanphuet and legal officer Achariyaphan Wongwarn. He alleged the officials made false statements and committed malfeasance in the temporary seizure of her cash deposit.
The Amlo had claimed that the money was obtained through corruption surrounding a land purchase scam in which Somchai, ex-mayor of tambon Saen Suk in Chon Buri, was implicated.

Earlier, the lower court sentenced Somchai to five years and four months in prison for graft in the purchase by Pattaya City between 1992 and 1993 of a 140-rai land plot valued at 93 million baht in Bang Lamung district of Chon Buri. The land was designated as a garbage dump.

Somchai appealed but the Appeals Court let the verdict stand. He appealed to the Supreme Court, which is expected to deliver its decision tomorrow after delays resulting from Somchai's ill health.

Ms Jiraporn insisted the money had nothing to do with the scam. According to her suit, Amlo made a 90-day seizure of 53 items of assets belonging to Somchai, his wife and his daughter after Somchai was found guilty of corruption.

She accused Pol Lt-Col Sunai and Ms Achariyaphan of lying to an Amlo panel that her 13.4-million-baht deposit had been derived from corruption.

The acting Amlo chief asked the prosecution to seek a court order to confiscate the assets, including the money, pending appeals although Pol Lt-Col Sunai had testified that Ms Jiraporn had never hidden or transferred her assets.

The court accepted the lawsuit and set July 17 as the date for the first examination.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/06Apr2006_news04.php

[GWR]

Here's a wee election nugget the mainstream media seem to have missed:

Question: Which constituency in Thailand recorded the highest (69%) NO vote?
Answer: Sampuntawong (Bangkok's Chinatown)!:)

Apparently, areas of Songkhla Province recorded 70% ticking of the 'No Vote' box. Unlike Bangkok, the likes of motorcycle taxi drivers, tuk-tuk drivers and songthaew drivers were much more likely to sport orange and yellow pendants. Other folks have quite openly admitted they spoiled the ballot papers.

[The Enforcer!]

As the Taksin The Terminator said ....

"I'll be back!"

The Enforcer!

[Tettyan]

A version of what I just posted over on thaivisa.com. Apologies to those who may have already seen this.

Througout the country, the NO vote topped TRT in 116 out of 400 districts. If the opposition had run unified in the election and we assume that NO votes represent votes that would have gone to the opposition's unity candidate, in the constituency segment, we would have had 284 TRT MPs vs 116 opposition. For party list, if we assume that both NO votes and invalid ballots were for the opposition, that gives us 62 TRT seats vs 38 for the opposition. Ahhh... but you may say that if Chart Thai had actually run, they would have picked up more party list votes from TRT in Suphan Buri (which overwhelming went to TRT just for this time). Fair enough. Let's assume then that TRT would have won 60 party list seats vs 40 for the opposition. So including the constituencies, that gives a total of 344 TRT MPs vs 156 for the opposition.

But some may ask "what about the large number of spoiled ballots in the constituencies?". We can't just assume that all the spoiled votes would have gone to the opposition - people spoil their votes for a number of reasons, but anecdotal evidence suggests that many spoiled their ballots out of protest. Fair enough, so let's assume that in constituencies where the NO vote combined with spoiled ballots exceeds the TRT candidate's total by 5000 votes, the opposition would have won the seat. These conditions are met in 14 constituencies througout the country. So the total comes to 328 for TRT vs 172 for the opposition.

Ahh... but one more thing. TRT votes topped no votes in almost all the districts where there was a Chart Thai or Mahachon incumbent. Had these two parties run candidates, it would have been reasonable for them to keep the seats out of the hands of TRT. OK then, I'm going to assume that all Chart Thai and Mahachon incumbents would have won. I will even hand all four constituencies in Phichit, the home of Mahachon leader Sanan, to the opposition (even though they didn't win them last time). That leaves 307 seats for TRT vs 193 for the opposition. By Thai standards, that's still a landslide victory. In fact, the second biggest in Thai history, after Thaksin's feat last year.

I've done all I can to spin the numbers the opposition's way, but the reality we have to accept is that even in a contested election, TRT still would have won fair and square.

But now, Thaksin's the one that's out of a job. While I'm relieved that he's gone (for now), can we really call this democratic?

[GWR]

A version of what I just posted over on thaivisa.com. Apologies to those who may have already seen this.

Througout the country, the NO vote topped TRT in 116 out of 400 districts. If the opposition had run unified in the election and we assume that NO votes represent votes that would have gone to the opposition's unity candidate, in the constituency segment, we would have had 284 TRT MPs vs 116 opposition. For party list, if we assume that both NO votes and invalid ballots were for the opposition, that gives us 62 TRT seats vs 38 for the opposition. Ahhh... but you may say that if Chart Thai had actually run, they would have picked up more party list votes from TRT in Suphan Buri (which overwhelming went to TRT just for this time). Fair enough. Let's assume then that TRT would have won 60 party list seats vs 40 for the opposition. So including the constituencies, that gives a total of 344 TRT MPs vs 156 for the opposition.

But some may ask "what about the large number of spoiled ballots in the constituencies?". We can't just assume that all the spoiled votes would have gone to the opposition - people spoil their votes for a number of reasons, but anecdotal evidence suggests that many spoiled their ballots out of protest. Fair enough, so let's assume that in constituencies where the NO vote combined with spoiled ballots exceeds the TRT candidate's total by 5000 votes, the opposition would have won the seat. These conditions are met in 14 constituencies througout the country. So the total comes to 328 for TRT vs 172 for the opposition.

Ahh... but one more thing. TRT votes topped no votes in almost all the districts where there was a Chart Thai or Mahachon incumbent. Had these two parties run candidates, it would have been reasonable for them to keep the seats out of the hands of TRT. OK then, I'm going to assume that all Chart Thai and Mahachon incumbents would have won. I will even hand all four constituencies in Phichit, the home of Mahachon leader Sanan, to the opposition (even though they didn't win them last time). That leaves 307 seats for TRT vs 193 for the opposition. By Thai standards, that's still a landslide victory. In fact, the second biggest in Thai history, after Thaksin's feat last year.

I've done all I can to spin the numbers the opposition's way, but the reality we have to accept is that even in a contested election, TRT still would have won fair and square.

But now, Thaksin's the one that's out of a job. While I'm relieved that he's gone (for now), can we really call this democratic?

You're assuming we that we're denying his victory, and we're not.

The point is surely that if TRT took every single seat, it still wouldn't have a mandate to pervert the course of justice.

[Tettyan]

You're assuming we that we're denying his victory, and we're not.

The point is surely that if TRT took every single seat, it still wouldn't have a mandate to pervert the course of justice.

I very much sympathise with your sentiments. The problem is that it hasn't been proven that the man's violated the law. His lawyers ensure that Thaksin meticulously adheres to the letter of the law while systematically violating the spirit of the law. What's tough is that you can't always count on the courts to enforce the "spirit" of the law. At the end of the day, the ballot box is best way for holding corrupt politicians to account.

The Democrats are now demanding "political reform" before they rejoin the system. That's fine and all, but if I were them, my top priority would be to reform my own house first, and fast.

[Scuba22]

You're getting into what I think is one of the most vexing issues of the day - what happens when people can decieve their way into power and then manipulate the system in a way to "steal legally"? Is that an oxymoron? I don't think so, I think that's exactly what "policy corruption" is all about.

Whether it's gerrymandered districting, off-balance sheet transactions, or complicated tax-avoidance schemes, it is a very cynical use of politics to use arcane hidden aspects of a democratic system to enrich yourself while no one pays attention. Thailand is certainly not the only place it's happenning.

Scuba22

[GWR]

At the end of the day, the ballot box is best way for holding corrupt politicians to account.

What happens when the ballot is subverted both by mass votebuying and rigged voting?

This mess is entirely the fault of the local elite, from the TOP down. They have done everything in their power to maintain a politically naive electorate, and the upshot of that policy is a workforce which is completely unable to raise its act. You can't really expect a more cerebral approach to work from people who aren't even allowed to think differently in the supposed privacy of their own homes. Thaksin pays lipservice to this problem, and then proceeds to do exactly what Barnharn would have done if only he'd had the money. A lot of well-to-do high so types are beginning to realize they have created a popularist monster. Too bad that they didn't equip the electorate with some sort of immunity from frauds other than communism and socialism. Too bad they couldn't get off their complacent fat backsides.

I'd suggest to you that the Dems are also a lost cause. I'd suggest that Thai workers will eventually have to get organized into their own independent political groupings, as it is apparent that they are going to have to go and get reform the hard way. It's been tried the passive way without any decent result.

[The Enforcer!]

As the Taksin The Terminator said ....

"I'll be back!"

The Enforcer!
I will still bet on Taksin as PM in 2010.

The Enforcer!

[ncr]

As Taksin The Terminator said ....

"I'll be back!"Hasta la vista, baby.

Not unlikely. At least he'll try.

[ncr]

http://www.2bangkok.com/06/Thaksinator-color.gif
Thaksinator :eek:

P.S. Aren't they cute, Nong Sondhi and Nong Chamlong?

[Thx4AllTheFish]

Okay, so someone mentioned that the government has pretty much bred a population that, for the most part, seems to be getting pissed off about the wrong things. Thaksin has taken this country to hell and back (I don't know about the 'and back' part, personally) and still stands a chance of being handed the post of PM again. Why, and how, can this conceivably happen?

This can happen because people will vote for him, obviously. Now, why in the world do people vote for him? Either they don't truly understand what he's done (this includes people who are under the misconception that he's done right by this country), they have an unconditional devotion to him (a very dangerous thing for a politician to have), or they just don't care. Now, don't get me wrong - I'm Thai, so this isn't a round of Thai-bashing.

It's more amazement, I guess. Amazement that this kind of thing goes on. Amazement that somehow, somewhere, Thai people stopped paying attention to their rights and adopted the "this is Thailand" attitude. We allow our internet to be censored a' la China; we put the country's most powerful businessman into the country's most powerful political post; hell, some people even back him when it's plainly obvious that he's out to make a buck at the country's expense; then we do the greatest thing of all - to ruin any chance of an intelligent resolution among the people, we take this matter and turn it into a personal vendetta against those who think differently from us.

Maybe I'm expecting things too similar to the constitution to the United States, but I think that those are things I should have the right to expect. Dominant political party / ruling system aside, everyone should have the right to read what they want to read, see what they want to see, and be who they want to be. I think those things should be universal, but the concept of sovereignty limits me to expect it from each individual country. Key word being 'expect'.

I wish I'm terribly terribly mistaken, that there's something I've missed that will show me that everything is indeed the way it should be; that we (Thai people) actually do give a rat's ass about our country; that maybe, just maybe, someday this country's power will go to where it belongs - the people.

[Wisarut]

One sure thign I have seen. If Thaksin and cronies' business prosper, people will get the share of this spioil ... Otherwise, Thaksin and cronies will push the economic and contry to HELL ... as the punishment for thsoe who Disloyal to the great leader ....