TRT Factions?

[Tettyan]

Many of Wikipedia's entries on Thai politics are still under-developed, so I've been working on some of them for some time now. For instance, the article on "Thai Rak Thai" is still only a "stub." I decided to contribute a section under the entry about the party's factions. Information on this matter is still a bit sketchy, but I tried to include as much as I could find on public domain. Please check it out here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_Rak_Thai

Your comments are most welcome. If you have anything to add, maybe we can discuss here on this forum before any further changes are made. I'm sure there are some among you who know a lot more than me - since my Thai reading ability isn't very good.

[Scuba22]

The wiki is a great resource and I'm glad you're doing this. I was going to suggest that we compile all the great informatin from the media thread and post it up on wiki.

It would also be great to publicize the wiki entries - it's a true open source that would be difficult to censor, and has plenty of scope for open debate.

Regarding TRT factions, this is a fascinating topic and I wish I knew more about it. For a full understanding, we probably need to go back to Thaksin's beginnings in politics through the Phalang Dharma party.

Here is my understanding, others please correct it, I know it's pretty sparse:

Palang Dharma was started by Chamlong, a rather strict Buddhist, based on quite moralistic principles. Thaksin eventually broke off from the party claiming the party was not "practical" enough to win any real power.

TRT's beginnings included a lot of reformers - academics, technocrats, etc., who really wanted to make a change in Thai politics and society. Thaksin combined these people with sources of money - big Bangkok businesspeople such as CP, Maleenonts (BEC-Tero), Grammy, Bangkok Bank, and others; and traditional sources of provincial power, the "factions" like Snoh, about which I know little.

From what I've seen, the reformers have pretty much left the party in disgust, while a few still hold out hope that TRT is still interesed in doing something worthwhile.

The businesspeople, I'd say, are divided into two camps. One camp are the "protectionists" who are looking to the government to secure their positions in Thailand in the face of imminent foreign opening under WTO regulations. The other camp are the "true capitalists" who are looking for a fairer playing field where they feel they can grow both in Thailand and abroad. As a rough guide to which is which, you could see how much of the company business is limited to Thailand, and how much international business the company does. The more international business the company does, the more comfortable they are in their competitive ability and therefore seek a more open economy. The less confident people are in their actual business savvy, like BEC Tero or Grammy, the more they will try to gain advantage through preferencial government policy or law rather than open competition.

From what I've seen, the protectionists are winning this battle, especially in the media/entertainment, telecommunications and financial services fields. These fields have legitimate regulatory roles for government, but this also opens the scope for regulatory interference favoring specific companies. This in turn provides an opportunity to create a regulatory climate that "appears" open to the outside, but starts getting totally entagled when you get into details. More details on this in the media thread!

As for the political factions, this I know little about.

If anyone can start providing details on specific reformers, technocrats, businesses and political factions involved with TRT, I'd love to learn about it!

Thanks,

Scuba22

[GWR]

Had a quick look at that Wiki entry and I'm quite impressed. For a start it sorted out one piece of confusion caused by a post elsewhere in this forum. One poster confused me by saying Industry Minister Suriya (Khun Wisaruth's Bete Noire since his transport Minister days) was a member of the Wang Nam Yen faction. From Wiki it appears he is actually a Wang Nam YOM faction member. I couldn't figure out how he could possibly coexist with the ever trucculent Sanoh Tienthong of Wang Nam Yen, who has a tendency to try & stomp on any transport development project which might possibly have a slightly negative effect on his truck, bus & 'cross-border' interests.

Every time I look at lists of TRT I come away thinking about what a bunch of dross Taksin has amassed from old parties; a great deal of it bordering on the criminal.

The 'Kamnan Po' faction leaves me completely speechless. And 'er' indoors' frequently reminds me that 'Newin', as in Newin Chidchob, is actually a related name to that of the old Burmese millitary dictator Ne Win. It appears Newin's father was a great admirer of Ne Win; and there is even a suggestion that they might be distant relations.

[Tettyan]

Thanks to both of you, I appreciate your comments.

Believe it or not, much of the material for my entry could be found in the "Thai Media Project" section of 2bangkok.com. There's a piece about Thaksin's cabinet that started in March (nothing on July's Cabinet as far as I can see) there too, so, Scuba22, if you're interested in seeing who the "technocrats," "regional politicians", "wallets", in TRT are, check out http://www.2bangkok.com/2bangkok/thaimediaproject/050407b.shtml .

I find your analysis of TRT as a marriage between "protectionist" and "internationalist" business interests interesting. I recall that Pasuk and Baker allude to this at the end of their book, but didn't dwell too much upon it. Japan's LDP was also an alliance between protectionist and multinational business intersts. However, last September's election witnessed the purge of many lawmakers who represented protectionist interests. Can we hope the same for Thai Rak Thai?

I'd say that guys like Suriya (whose family controls Thai Summit Autoparts) are more on the internationalist side. The Thai auto industry is probably the region's most competitive and many multinational car companies choose Thailand as their base because of the presence of a well-developed network of high-quality parts suppliers. The CP Group is a bit more conflicted. Although the have interests in telecommunications (UBC, True, TA Orange), they are not the dominant player, and would certainly benefit from a more level playing field. On the other hand, CP's food processing business is one of the world's most competetive. The CP group is also one of the biggest foreign direct investors in China. They're probably the only Thai company that can be considered a multinational.

Daniel Lian likes to talk (back when he used to talk, rumor has it that Morgan Stanley has muzzled him for the time being) about the "dual-track" economic strategy of Thaksin. The first track is to promote microcredit and SMEs, while the other is to make Thailand the "hub of Southeast Asia" by concluding FTAs (Free Trade Agreements) with as many countries as possible. No doubt, the latter track is being pursued out of consideration to groups like CP or Suriya.

Of course, it's easy to keep groups with conflicting interests together when the economy is humming along and the pie is still growing, as was the case from 2002-2004. With the outlook a little more uncertain, I wonder if we can start to expect more party infighting in the near future. The factionalism of TRT and Scuba22's observations sure would point to this. If so, there may still be a glimmer of hope for Thailand.

[Wisarut]

My list of thsoe bête noire grows ... :cool: :p ;) :D :) :rolleyes:

1) Ai Suriya
2) Ai Pheng
3) Ai Watthana Muangsuk
4) Ai Watthan Assawahem
5) Ai Newin
6) Ai Sanoh
7) Ai Suchon
8) Ai Chitchai
9) Ai Yongyut Dissayaphairat
10) Ai Chitchai Wannasathit
11) Ai Khongsak Wanthana
12) Ee Rabiabrat Phognphanit [the Old moutian hag]
13) Ee Sudarat Keyuraphan [the Powerful Concubine]

[GWR]

Khun Taksin, with Khun W's list of rabble in your party, one really wonders how you get away with calling the protests of ordinary Thai citizens a 'mob'. As far as I can see, 'mob' is derogatory in both Thai & English.

[ncr]

Very interesting topic indeed. I had also been looking for a summary of this. The information provided here is not bad for a start. So we can count at least 9 party-internal groups.....

See also: the Bangkok Post article (http://www.asiademocracy.org/content_view.php?section_id=1&content_id=437) from March 2005, featured by ARDA (Alliance for Reform and Democracy in Asia) and linked on Wikipedia -

A key party member agreed, saying it was difficult to win 377 seats but it would be even harder still to keep the holders of these seats under control. One possibility is that the factions might turn on each other.

Would be fun to watch that..... :D

And by the way, what about the Wadah faction (Wan Muhamad Nor Mata)?

[GWR]

I always picture Uraiwan Thienthong as the Madam Dufarge of the Wang Nam Yen faction. She almost certainly has many of her husband's ('grumpy old snake's head') machiavellian ways, but I half suspect she would do everyone a favor by staying at home & getting on with her knitting. Doubtless her 'inactive post' of Culture Minister reflects the constant need to assuage the voracious WNY, whilst making sure she can't actually do any harm.

I suppose the Wadah faction is no longer considered worth bothering with, as I seem to remember that only 1 or 2 of them got re-elected. Mohammed Nor Matha has not exactly endeared himself to Southern Muslims in recent years; ever since he came over all patriotic whilst watching riot police breaking up a mob outside Hat-Yai's JB Hotel; perhaps with his authority. As an ex-Transport Minister (of the 'let's look after my local station' persuasion) he is also just below Suriya on Khun Wisaruth's revolution hitlist.

[Wisarut]

For the case of Wannor [WanMuhammadNor Matha], he is not that bad as those in my bête noire list :p eventhough he seems to have the problem about legitimated son .... who takes care of his wealth and his Sri Yala palace in Yala. :confused:

[waerth]

I must say this forum contains some great posts with lots of info. I have been using some of the info for articles in the Dutch wikipedia as I am most active there. I am busy distilling GWR's posts about Hat Yai to use it for the history of Hat Yai section in the Dutch Wikipedia entry on Hat Yai. So thanks GWR and others. I will mention the source and writer.

Waerth (steward on all wikimedia projects) and admin on Dutch and Thai wikipedia's

[GWR]

It seems all is not happy in the Wadah Camp. It seems they don't have a single elected MP right now. The Dems & Chat Thai are possible hosts:-

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2005/11/04/national/data/national_19062342.html

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2005/11/09/national/index.php?news=national_19102747.html

Right at the end of the first article is a mention of a TRT Party Executive Veera Musikapong. Khun Veera is a shining example of how Thai politicians make the rules up as they go along. Many years ago he was involved in encouraging a group of disgruntled Phuket residents to put the torch to a Tantalum refinery. One imagines that the pollution must have been pretty bad.

Having seen Khun Veera on one of those TV shows where Poo-Yais show their loyalty & respect by singing (sometimes painfully), I can tell you has a fairly decent voice. However, I would have thought Khun Veera would have understood that parties have a tendency to get boring, as he has been involved in his fair share of strategic defections over the years.

More on Wadah's 2005 Election Woes:-

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/Election2005/news/news.php?news=02/12020501.htm

http://www.asianewsnet.net/level3_template1.php?l3sec=15&news_id=35728

And the inevitable sparks are already flying in TRT:-

http://202.60.196.117/breaking/read.php?lang=en&newsid=92779

[Gulliver]

Tettyan,
It looks very well thought out, but just a question is it 375? or 374. From some reason I thought it was 375. I also thought mentioning Chavalit would be of interest and his recent demotion as well as Wan Mohammad nor mathar and the Wadah faction.

Scuba 22,
To my knowledge everything you wrote appears quite right and I remember recalling recently how Chamlong Srimuang excepted responsibility for introducing Thaksin to politics and apologized, saying it was a big mistake.

Guys, what I think is of interest is the different personal business transactions that took place among the members or the LAUNDERING. If you recall Alpine Golf was once owned by Sanoh and there was some land controversy there, but after Thaksin purchased. All gone. His ownership of Muang Thong Thani, Phya Thai hospitals, and numerous other deals.

Also, if you remember when Thaksin first entered politics he was handing out gifts left and right, I remember ACM Rahong receiving a new jaguar as well as a few other associates not to mention the very expensive bottles of wine that were flowing out. Now, I know it would be a very long list, but hey Thaksin says he's clean why not prove it?

[ncr]

From the Nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2005/12/04/headlines/index.php?news=headlines_19330890.html):

RULING PARTY: Factions distressed by falling popularity

Published on December 04, 2005

MPs call for new Cabinet team to restore flagging public image. At least two major factions of the ruling Thai Rak Thai party, with more than 120 MPs, yesterday publicly expressed displeasure over the government’s performance and its waning popularity.

Thaewan Liptapanlop, an MP from the northeastern province of Nakhon Ratcha-sima, said the Thai Rak Thai was beset by unfavourable conditions, internally and externally. “These factors have hurt the government’s performance and credibility, resulting in a decline in popularity in the public’s eyes. More and more people are unhappy with the performance of key ministers as they feel the individuals are unsuitable for the crucial jobs,” he said. The government was plagued by slowing economic growth, violent turmoil in the South and increasingly frequent public rallies against the government, he added.

The premier needed to reshuffle the Cabinet soon or the government’s performance and popularity would not improve, he said. “Just moving the party annual meeting from Chiang Mai to Bangkok will not solve the problem, because dissatisfaction has also come from within the party,” he said, referring to TRTs’ plan to shore up popularity in the capital. Thaewan said under-performing ministers included those in the Defence and Agriculture ministries. Thaewan is a member of the Lum Ta Klong faction, led by deputy premier Suwat Liptapanlop, who controls about 20 MPs in the Northeast.

Nisit Sinthuprai, a member of the Wang Nam Yom faction and MP for Roi Et province, said the Interior portfolio was another that needed a shake-up due to its unimpressive performance. Nisit said the reason people have thronged to Bangkok’s Lumpini Park to hear media mogul Sondhi Limthongkul criticise the premier was that the administration has failed to provide straightforward answers to questions raised by the sharp-tongued critic. “Even I, as an MP, want to know more, so what about the people? People have the right to know and question the government,” Nisit said. “If the government is innocent and wants to rescue its waning popularity, it has to answer all the questions,” he said. One problem he cited was the allegation by Sondhi that an Air Force C-130 plane was used to fly guests of the PM’s younger sister from Bangkok to her private birthday party in Chiang Mai.

Nisit is one of the 100 or so members of the Wang Nam Yom faction headed by Labour Minister Somsak Thepsuthin. These MPs are mostly from the North. Both Wang Nam Yom and Lum Ta Klong have stepped up pressure on the PM for a re-jig of the Cabinet in the hope of gaining control of more important portfolios. The two groups reportedly plan to join forces with another disgruntled faction, Snoh Thienthong’s Wang Nam Yen.

[Scuba22]

Dear Tettyan - sorry it's taken me a while to write back. I'd like to go into the business perspective of Thaksin & thai politics as it's the area where I have the most direct experience.

From what I see, the Thai business world is not at all monolithic in terms of its political leanings, and is going through some very interesting transitions. There are a host of "provincial businesses" with defined "turf" intimately part of the local money-politics complex. The local boss who controlled the local economy would support a given politician who would return state funds to the local boss. This tended to lead to the "elected in the country, thrown out by Bangkok" style of previous governments that the 1997 constitution tried to break through creating party-list MPs and stronger central control. What I hear is that TRT tried to gain power without these interests but in the end couldn't, so Thaksin co-opted some of these guys into TRT, and they represent a good number of the factions and the sub-factions. Since their interest is in exclusive contracts, they are likely to resist a more open economy.

Then again, some of these folks may have build export-based manufacturing businesses and may benefit from openness. What you say abotu Suriya and Thai Summit is a case in point. At the same time, I do wonder a bit about the auto industry competitiveness here and if it's really the big success story that everyone thinks it is. First of all, much of the original placement of auto assembly in Thailand was the result of an ASEAN agreement dividing up different auto components between countries - hence why transmissions for example are made in the Philippines. I believe most cars made in Thailand are destined for ASEAN, not beyond; and for the ASEAN market, Thailand is a very sensible place to make cars: Philippines is not a central location, Singapore is small & expensive, Malaysia & Indonesia both had national car programs, and Laos/Vietnam/Cambodia/Myanmar all have lots of problems - so I'm not sure if Thailand's auto industry is that much evidence of Thai operational competitiveness. In addition, there is some talk that some parts suppliers in Thailand have been falling short of quality needs, to the point where buyers like Toyota have been buying out some suppliers. Whether parts suppliers are really "international" is a good question - what if it sells mostly to multinationals operating in Thailand for Thai assembly, taking advantage of domestic regulations to gain a business edge... is that "international"?

There is also a "darker" story in the provincial businesses, as some of these local strongmen are also involved with prostitution, drugs, gambling, etc. There is an opportunity for a "join me or die" strategy - systematically wiping out enemies through campaigns like a "war on drugs". I don't know if this is part of the story, but it certainly fits.

There is a small "old guard" of very "Thai" companies like Siam Cement and Siam Commercial Bank, both part of the Crown Property Bureau. From what I see these are professionally run organizations without any political involvemet, but their unique role means that they will not be allowed to fail and will continue to get favor even if they don't do anything directly to solicit it.

Probably the most important TRT business backers are large Bangkok companies founded by Chinese immigrants shortly after the Cultural Revolution, when lots of the Chinese 'entrepreneurial class' came over to Thailand and the rest of Southeast Asia. This is the group I think is undergoing some serious changes as the companies either get passed down to the second or third generation of the family, or start getting professionalized with non-family managers. To the extent that these businesses feel they can compete on the global stage, they may welcome more openness; to the extent they're more concerned about protecting and consolidating their domestic positions, they're more likely to try to put their people in regulatory positions.

There is considerable rifts even with the same business groups. Central Retail, for example, thinks they are a globally competitive retailer and are itching to go abroad - whether they are correct and will be successful we'll see. Central Pattana, on the other hand, are completely domestic. Similarly for CP - different divisions are more or less interested in openness.

This sets up an interesting situation in the FTA negotiations. The agreeements will result from lots of horse-trading, Thailand gives up XYZ, the US gives up ABC, etc. There is a setup here where the politically connected opens up industries that don't matter to them very much (like electronics, banking, agriculture, tourism), while protecting the industries that they do care about, such as telecoms and media. Unfortunately, we hardly ever see enough details of these FTAs to know what's going on. It would be nice if there were more information about the details of these; but if there is it's more likely to come from the US side I think. The Thai team's PR attitude seems to be "trust us and shut up".

Cheers,

Scuba

[Tettyan]

From what I see, the Thai business world is not at all monolithic in terms of its political leanings, and is going through some very interesting transitions. There are a host of "provincial businesses" with defined "turf" intimately part of the local money-politics complex. The local boss who controlled the local economy would support a given politician who would return state funds to the local boss. This tended to lead to the "elected in the country, thrown out by Bangkok" style of previous governments that the 1997 constitution tried to break through creating party-list MPs and stronger central control. What I hear is that TRT tried to gain power without these interests but in the end couldn't, so Thaksin co-opted some of these guys into TRT, and they represent a good number of the factions and the sub-factions. Since their interest is in exclusive contracts, they are likely to resist a more open economy.

As I alluded to in the thread on the constitution, TRT's marriage of provincial power cliques with major Bangkok business interests has helped break the "elected in the country, thrown out by Bangkok" pattern. Thaksin hasn't elicited to vitriolic dislike from Bangkokoniains that Chatchai, Banharn and Chavalit did because he's just not another country bumpkin. Of course, I think in the long-term, Thaksin's grand coalition of almost every vested interest in the country is inherantly unstable. Which is why I created this thread on factions. A common thirst for power is the only thing that unites these interests. When things are going well, TRT looks invincible. When Thaksin is down, like he has been lately, the factions spend more time fighting each other than protecting the PM. I think Thaksin himself understands how vulnerable his position is - that explains his extreme paranoia and sensitivity to criticism.

Then again, some of these folks may have build export-based manufacturing businesses and may benefit from openness. What you say abotu Suriya and Thai Summit is a case in point. At the same time, I do wonder a bit about the auto industry competitiveness here and if it's really the big success story that everyone thinks it is. First of all, much of the original placement of auto assembly in Thailand was the result of an ASEAN agreement dividing up different auto components between countries - hence why transmissions for example are made in the Philippines. I believe most cars made in Thailand are destined for ASEAN, not beyond; and for the ASEAN market, Thailand is a very sensible place to make cars: Philippines is not a central location, Singapore is small & expensive, Malaysia & Indonesia both had national car programs, and Laos/Vietnam/Cambodia/Myanmar all have lots of problems - so I'm not sure if Thailand's auto industry is that much evidence of Thai operational competitiveness. In addition, there is some talk that some parts suppliers in Thailand have been falling short of quality needs, to the point where buyers like Toyota have been buying out some suppliers. Whether parts suppliers are really "international" is a good question - what if it sells mostly to multinationals operating in Thailand for Thai assembly, taking advantage of domestic regulations to gain a business edge... is that "international"?

Though Thailand exports most of its cars to ASEAN, I understand that auto parts manufactured here are exported to all parts of the world. Of course, you'd never know that driving your car whereever you may be. In many ways, though, Thailand did attain its position as leader of ASEAN's car industry by default, as you said.

That said, a couple of guys at Toyota's international division in Tokyo I met two years back were very impressed with Thailand's auto industry. I remember that all my colleagues were interested in just talking about China, but the Toyota guys kept talking about Thailand.

[GWR]

Thai Ruk Thai's candidate vetting procedures still seem to hinge only on how many votes can be delivered for the Baht. They always seem to ignore the fact that they might well be subsidising people who, in the very best scenario, sympathise with terrorists:-

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=5186

[Scuba22]

I posted this in the "constitutional reform" thread orginally but I think it makes more sense here...

Seems a lot of the more honest reformist elements have left out of disgust and the party is now an uneasy coalition of various old-school provincial bosses and protectionist Bangkok businesses. My feeling is that the TRT supplemented the traditional money-politics of the old-school bosses with fresh capital from the the Bangkok businesses and used the rhetoric of the reformers to gain popularity both at the grass-roots (the rural giveawap programs) and the urban & international community (through portraying themselves as modern capitalists).

Now that the reformists have scattered, we're seeing the level of real committment to rural development in the lackadasical implementation of the grass-roots program; and I suspect there area also clashes between the protectionist and internatioanal business communities, but that these tend to be in arcane areas like FTA talks that we don't hear much about.

I think that to hold this together, you need far better political skills and far more charisma than Thaksin can muster; you need to be at a level of a Lee Kwan Yew, or at least a Mahathir. The least you can say about both of them is that they clearly cared deeply for their countries. I honestly don't get that feeling from Thaksin - I really think his interest is in himself, his family, and his own personal supporters; I suspect that he doesn't see any difference between the country and his own personal interests. That's probably the scariest thing about him to me.

Cheers,

Scuba 22

[Wisarut]

Now, FTA has generated widespread CONDEMNATION from Trading Committee of the Senate to those farmers who lose from FTA ... ONLY Thaksin'scronies Reap the benefit from FTA .... they have turn the whole contry into Red Zone whcih need security guard aroung them when they travel for political campaign since the FTA has turned many farmers into assasins who have NOTHING to lose ....

[Scuba22]

From The Nation, Saturday 7 Jan:

"Thaksin also told Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak that he was unhappy with the pace of economic reforms.

" He said reform plans had been further delayed and the result could be a lower GDP. He gave Somkid three months to deliver “effective economic reforms”. "


Is there some friction developing between Thaksin & Somkid? If so, where does it come from?

For that matter, is there any indication that Somkid actually understands anything about economics? He has a PhD in Marketing from a business school and wrote a book with Kotler, a marketing guru; and clearly his marketing of the the TRT party and the Thaksin government to the rural electorate has been quite successful in selling far more than they actually had. But is that the right person to steer the economy? What exactly has he done for the economy that would make anyone think he's anything but a salesman?

Would you want a car salesman, no matter how good a salesman he was, to design your car engine?

Scuba22

[Wisarut]

Well, Khun SOmkhid and Khun Thaksin NEVER have such a conflict though ...

However, the problem is that Khun Somkhiud have recognized publci DISCONTENTS due to the FTA while The Leader still under the delusion that FTA that please both his family and his cronies are the best thing for the people since he have NEVER believe the discontents of the farmers in the north who suffer from FTA. :mad:

[Tettyan]

More on grumblings among the factions:

http://www.manager.co.th/IHT/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000005974


COMMENTARY: Thaksin uses Shin Corp’s iron rules to control TRT

By Phoojadkarn Weekly 16 January 2006 13:25


Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has ignored a factional revolt and used company-like regulations to crush factions in the Thai Rak Thai party. A former TRT advisor has suggested that the party leader’s idea to develop a new political environment is a failure and does not reflect the reality of Thai politics. It is also possible that the party’s internal conflicts will become more serious within a few years. TRT rebels are waiting for the dismantling of the 90-day rule or a constitutional amendment that would allow candidates to contest general elections without having to be a party member for at least 90 days before an election.

Less than a week after the outburst by Wong Nam Yen faction leader Sanoh Tienthong, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra had cooled political tensions within the TRT party and restored the situation to normal. It’s as if there was no revolt by the Wong Nam Yen faction.

The only legacy of Sanoh’s rebellious act is his weaker political standing.

Since the first Thaksin government, there have been many internal conflicts and revolts in TRT, especially during downturns in the popularity of Thaksin and the government.

When the government’s popularity is in decline, there is usually more turbulence within TRT as almost every faction tries to attract the people’s attention and demonstrate its strength. Yet, the party leader has been successful in dealing with every faction leader.

Thaksin gives no heed to internal conflict

Conflicts between Thaksin and Sanoh Tienthong are not new. This time, however, members of the Wong Nam Yen faction seemed to be more determined and optimistic because of the prospect of resigning from the party if the 90-day rule was removed. The absence of the 90-day rule would make it easier for them to join other parties.

The recent moves by Sanoh and his faction might also have been motivated by concerns that Sanoh’s wife, Culture Minister Uraiwan Thienthong, could lose her post in a Cabinet reshuffle.

Despite Sanoh and his faction striving for more power, Thaksin remains firmly in control of the party.

“No one can guarantee that Khun Uraiwan will retain her post after the next cabinet reshuffle. We [the Wong Nam Yen faction] have only two ministerial positions left, which are those of Khun Uraiwan and Sora-at Klinpratoom [the ICT minister]. When we consider the other factions’ quotas, it is possible that we could lose both seats,” said Burin Hiranburana, the Wong Nam Yen faction’s party list MP.

Burin also admitted that Sanoh’s recent outburst, which was the result of his hot temper and feelings of having been belittled by Thaksin, would reflect negatively on the faction.

“A lot of people know that he [Sanoh] keeps quiet because of the PM. However, it is impossible that he will join the Democrat party; we have to understand that they have different political styles.”

TRT to escape from old vicious circle and become an ‘institution’

The conflict between the leader of the Wang Nam Yen faction and the party leader reflects an accumulation of old and new problems in TRT. Thaksin has not tried to resolve what others regarded as crucial problems, perhaps because he and those around him do not regard internal conflicts as being an urgent priority.

The party leader is trying hard to make his party ‘a political institution’ in line with his belief that he can unchain political parties from the old vicious circle that evolved around acquiring benefits and mud-slinging

The PM’s idea of developing the TRT party into a political institution is in marked contrast to the views held by those in the Democrat party.

Members of the Democrat party are accustomed to conducting their political activities within an atmosphere of a disparity of ideas. The ideal political institution of the PM seems to based only on the absolute power of the party leader.

The PM’s attempt to create a political institution is aimed at making the TRT party become a company like Shin Corp. During the establishment of the TRT party, he expressed his concept of politics and what he would like his party to be. It is understandable that from the beginning he wanted to have absolute control over the party, in the same way that he manages his group of companies. While it was not clear then whether Thai Rak Thai would be run like a political party or a company, Khun Thaksin was enjoying considerable popularity, so there was no problem.



Old conflicts: Sanoh and wife Uraiwan Thienthong


‘Company’ regulations to control politicians

The management of the Thai Rak Thai party has said that the PM’s attempt to change the country’s political environment by practicing absolute power was not wrong, but could lead to problems under the prevailing circumstances. This is because Thai political parties usually consist of small factions that regard themselves as the party’s shareholders who have the right to express opinions.

“But Khun Thaksin does not want partners who share their opinions,” said a political analyst. “If someone doesn’t like the way he rules the party, their only option is to leave. It seems that more MPs came to realize that they were being treated like company employees after their factions disintegrated or their roles were reduced. This is something which was planned by Khun Thaksin from the beginning,” the analyst said.

Meanwhile other factions which have some status within the party are compelled to function like party employees because they have no alternative. The Wang Phya Nak faction of Phinij Jarusombat, the Wang Lamtakong faction of Suwat Liptapanlop, and the Muang Chon faction of Sonthaya Khunpluem are factions that have no better option than staying with Thai Rak Thai. Regardless of how Somsak Thepsuthin joins hands with Suriya Jungrungreankit in the Wang Nam Yom faction, the PM seems to regard them of being of little significance, compared to his treatment of his ‘old employees’ from Chang Song La (the name of his house) and factions known to close to him.

Downsize influential factions

The conflicts involving factions in the TRT party have bruised factional leaders. Some leaders were appointed to head ministries that are regarded by politicians as being of little importance, while significant positions in the party and the House of Representatives were awarded to members of the few groups close to Thaksin.

Hence there has been no surprise about rumors that some factional leaders are secretly associating with opposition parties. According to the latest rumours, three TRT members whose names start with the letter ‘Sor’ are also planning to form a new political party.

“I cannot see that having one key member controlling ten other members and those ten members each controlling another 100 members would put an end to internal conflicts,” said a source in the Wong Nam Yen faction. “The problem is not who has control over whom, it lies with the factional leaders, who are unsatisfied because they feel neglected,” the source said. “The PM is certainly aware of the problem, yet he has done nothing other than breaking up factions or diminishing their role. As for the Wang Nam Yen faction, I doubt whether Sora-at Klinpratoom is still considered to be a member. As for the other factions, apart from the group that is close to the PM and Khunying Pojaman, even they want to keep low profile, but I can tell that none of them is happy.”

New party and unlocking the 90-day rule is the last way out

One possible reason why the PM accords little significance to internal conflicts in TRT is that he knows a constitutional amendment to the 90-days rule will not occur anytime soon due to a lack of the necessary financial and ‘human resources.’

“Khun Banharn Silpa-Archa is totally correct when he said that Khun Sanoh raised the matter too soon,” a TRT source said. “Apart from being a victim of his own quick temper, nobody would agree with Khun Sanoh’s timing, given that the Speaker could not leave the party. There’s also the fact that it’s only a year since the general election. If Sanoh had waited until two or three years after the election, he would have had a greater chance of success,” the source said.

“If TRT members or those in the Wang Nam Yen faction want to flee Thaksin, they must be confident of finding a tree to cling to. As soon as they find such a tree, no matter how small, the public might see some changes in the TRT party.

“That tree doesn’t have to be as big as the TRT tree or have thick foliage, all they need is a branch strong enough to support them and if they find one, MPs in other factions, including Wang Nam Yen, will desert TRT,” the source said.

“But we shouldn’t forget that PM Thaksin can also try to entice MPs to stay by offering them important positions or tasks. So if a group of 50 members decided to leave the party, the number who actually leave might be about 30 because the other 20 would be content to remain as TRT employees,” the source said.

The last four years should have made the PM aware that problems would occur if he applied his political ideology and his business management style to controlling politicians. Most experienced politicians know they have to make a choice between the political culture they want: the old politics or Thaksin’s politics.

The politicians who recognise that such a choice has to be made are not close to Thaksin.

This might be because Thaksin’s minions are accustomed to being regarded as employees and do not ask for more freedom or rights. Eventually, political analysts might need to reconsider whether the prime minister will achieve his ambition of building a new political environment.